In the context of Rajasthan’s exit polls for the Assembly Elections 2023, reminiscing about the 2018 exit polls might offer some insights. In the 2018 elections, the exit polls successfully predicted Congress’ ascent, ousting the ruling BJP led by Vasundhara Raje. The accuracy of these predictions led to Congress securing 99 seats and forming the government alongside independent MLAs, uprooting the BJP which obtained 73 seats.
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The 2018 exit poll results, except for the delayed Ramgarh seat election, were remarkably accurate. Various agencies foresaw the BJP’s departure and the Congress’s imminent arrival, aligning with Rajasthan’s historical trend of governmental shifts every five years.
Snapshot of 2018 Exit Polls:
Times Now-CNX predicted 85 seats for BJP, 105 for Congress, and 9 for others.
Aaj Tak-Axis My India estimated 63 BJP seats, 130 Congress, and 6 for others.
Republic-Jan Ki Bat projected 93 BJP seats, 91 Congress, and 15 others.
Republic-C Voter anticipated 60 BJP seats, 137 Congress, and 2 others.
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Fast Forward to 2023:
Presently, Rajasthan is under Congress rule, governed by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. The recent elections held on November 25, 2023, witnessed a fierce competition primarily between BJP and Congress. The state witnessed a high turnout of 75.45%, voting across 199 out of 200 constituencies. The election in the Karanpur assembly constituency was deferred due to the demise of the Congress candidate.
As the state anticipates the results of the 2023 exit polls, the historical accuracy of previous predictions raises curiosity about the potential accuracy in forecasting this year’s election outcome in Rajasthan.
