Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi
Karnataka Assembly Polls: The declaration of its intent to ban Bajrang Dal if it violated the law in the Congress manifesto for the May 10 Karnataka Assembly elections is neither a self-goal nor a move that will bring the BJP any additional votes and seats. It is nothing but a cold and calculated political move aimed at ‘reverse polarisation and consolidation of the secular vote in the favour of the Congress.
What has happened in Karnataka’s political landscape after the emergence of the BJP in a big way in the state is that the coastal region comprising some 20 seats became the Hindutva laboratory where the BJP gained immense political strength based on the propagation of its core issues Ram Mandir, Article 370, UCC, Halal, Hijab, Ajaan, Tipu Sultan and the like. In this belt, the BJP has had already maxed seats in the Assembly as well as Lok Sabha elections. And even if the BJP gains from the Bajrang Dal issue, it will gain additional votes in its stronghold and not additional seats in other regions.
Besides, the appeal and efficacy of the Hindutva issues have saturated and in other regions, the people are by and large more bothered about bread-and-butter issues, development, and growth of the state and their personal well-being. Price, rise, inflation and unemployment are real issues that affect the men and women on the ground.
“It is neither a self-goal by the Congress nor this issue can fetch the BJP any additional seats, and votes in different regions of the state barring the coastal Karnataka that is anyway with the BJP. The Congress appears to have cleverly played upon the BJP psychology and seems to have mentioned intent to ban Bajrang Dal knowing fully well that the BJP will take the bait,” said political analyst Prof Sandeep Shastri.
What this move, already, has resulted in is that it is being taken to a feverish pitch by the BJP and its ecosystem through state-wide protests (chanting of Hanuman Chalisa at temples by Bajrang Dal members and BJP workers.
“Without any shadow of a doubt, the Hindutva issues have reached saturation point and may not help the BJP any further than they have already done in the BJP strongholds,” Prof Shastri told Rashtradoot. Despite its massive campaign on Bajrang Dal and turning it into an issue with religious overtones – equating Bajrang Dal with Bajrang Bali (another name of Lord Hanuman) – in terms of polarisation and additional vote catch – will not happen as even the floating voters are not concerned with such issues. And those who can get influenced by the Bajrang Dal issue were anyway voting for the BJP, Prof Shastri felt.
What can happen though is that through this declaration, the Congress could benefit from reverse polarisation and consolidation of minority votes in its favour.
Said another political analyst, now it is the Congress that is driving the agenda and now the Bajrang Dal issue has been taken up by the entire BJP leadership, starting from Prime Minister Narendra Modi down to the karyakartas. And this is being matched by the vehemence of the Congress leaders to reiterate their decision to ban Bajrang Dal if it violates law and order.
The Karnataka BJP leadership was not very much willing to take up polarising issues in this election as was hinted at by Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai for whom issues like Ajaan, Halal, Hijab etc were not the poll issues. But now, even he must forcefully raise the Bajrang Dal issue like every other BJP leader.
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But, with this move, the Congress has got the BJP to do exactly what it does best. Perhaps after a careful cost-benefit analysis, Congress has come up with a political gamble fully knowing that it was not losing much in Coastal Karnataka, where it was anyway losing. At best it would win one or two seats in this region, but the ban declaration could help it consolidate minority votes that could enable the party to gain a few seats in other regions, especially in those that it lost narrowly last elections. If this happens in the Old Mysore region, the Janata Dal (S) stronghold, there is a chance to limit the regional party to a lower number and ensure there is no hung assembly.
There is a theoretical possibility of the 13 per cent Muslim vote that could consider voting the Congress this time around. Besides, since Bajrang Dal was alleged to be involved in attacks on Churches, the Christian votes may also find their way to Congress.
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But now it remains to be seen if this cost-benefit analysis stands the test of time.
In just about ten days, when the votes are counted on May 13, the Congress and the country will come to know if it scored a self-goal or hit the bull’s eye.
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