Bharat Ek Soch: In the ever-evolving landscape of global politics, the influence of a single leader can be profound, reverberating across continents and shaking established norms. The world has witnessed such shifts with Donald Trump’s second term as the President of the United States. From intensifying geopolitical conflicts to altering international economic policies, Trump’s impact is palpable, leaving nations in a state of anxious anticipation. Trump has questioned the relevance of organizations that have played a crucial role in addressing global challenges for decades.
Since taking charge in his second term, he has adopted an aggressive stance. The world witnessed an unexpected sharp conflict between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, which hardly anyone would have anticipated. Since then, Zelensky is worried about what will happen to his country Ukraine? The whole of Europe is worried that if America removes the security cover, then who will save them from Russia? There is also a debate going on whether European countries will be able to save Ukraine from Russia? Is Russia or China playing the role of a speed breaker in Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again mission? Why did China have to increase its defence budget? Is India benefited or harmed by Trump’s tactics? How much will the world’s balance of power change in the next few years?
Europe On The Edge
The tension in America is so much that now even President Trump’s close aides are ready to fight in front of him. According to a New York Times report, cabinet meeting witnessed an uproar. A heated debate erupted between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and DOEG Chief Elon Musk over employee layoffs. Musk criticized Rubio for opposing layoffs without having dismissed anyone himself. In response, Rubio fired back, asking, “How many have you laid off?” Tensions escalated further when Musk demanded a work accountability report from U.S. government employees via email, sparking widespread resentment.
The whole world has seen the heated debate between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky in the White House. Additionally, Trump’s policies regarding tariffs have created a another tension in the whole world. Now he has claimed that many countries including India, China, European Union have agreed to reduce tariff rates. In such a situation, in his second innings, Trump has become a symbol of controversy and conflict, casting a shadow of uncertainty across the globe. Ukraine is on edge. Europe is anxious. Russia and China are uneasy. The Arab world is unsettled. Tensions run high in Mexico, Panama, and even Canada. The people of America itself are tense. Everyone’s tension is different. But, everyone’s tension has increased – since Donald Trump became the President for the second term.
Between the presidential election and the swearing-in ceremony in the US, it was feared that there would always be confusion about whether President Trump would take the decision from his heart or mind. Will he take the decision on someone’s advice or will everything depend on his mood? At least the way European countries have shown solidarity after what happened during the meeting between President Trump and Zelensky at the White House on February 28, it seems that the era of push-pull diplomacy has now begun. In such a situation, first of all, let us understand the tension of Ukraine and Zelensky.
Even though the big leaders of the European Union are talking loudly about standing with Ukraine, President Zelensky is also well aware that even all European countries together are not in a position to protect his country from Russian aggression. It should be noted that after the US stopped aid, Russia launched the biggest attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In such a situation, Zelensky does not have many options left.
What Was Former U.S. President Joe Biden’s Stance on Ukraine?
Zelensky, who rose from being a comedian to the President of Ukraine, has been fighting a war with Russia for the past three years. When the war between Russia and Ukraine began, Joe Biden was the President of the United States. He called Russia the aggressor and extended every possible form of support to Ukraine. European countries have also contributed to aiding Ukraine. Now with Trump returning back to the White House, Ukranians are worried. Trump is considered to have better chemistry with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, Trump who was supporting Russia regarding the peace agreement till now, has now talked about imposing sanctions on Russia as well. Actually, America’s eyes are on the precious minerals hidden in the soil of Ukraine. Areas like Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which are full of precious minerals in Ukraine, are occupied by Russia and Russia is not ready to leave its occupied areas at any cost.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Zelensky is not ready for any peace agreement without security guarantees. The major European powers are claiming to stand with Ukraine. But the question is, how long will Ukraine be able to stand against Russia without American help? Other European countries are also afraid that after Ukraine, they might be next? In such a situation, a Defense Summit of European countries was organized in Brussels, in which, along with standing firmly with Ukraine, discussions were also held on creating a common security mechanism for Europe.
Trump Now Believes That Spending Even A Dollar On NATO Is A Waste
European countries are mostly worried of their borders and its security. They fear a Russian invasion. NATO was once formed to protect against the invasion of the communist USSR. It has 32 member countries under its umbrella. Now President Trump thinks investing even a dollar in NATO is a waste of money. US Defense Minister Pete Hegseth says that NATO members will have to increase their defense expenditure. NATO’s budget is estimated to be 3.8 billion pounds in the year 2025. America contributed 15.8% to NATO’s budget in 2024. Germany also bore the same burden as America. The United Kingdom contributed 11% to the NATO fund. France contributed 10.2%, while Italy spent 8.5%. The remaining dozen NATO members each account for less than 1% of the total share. With Trump’s aggressive stance, NATO’s very existence is at risk. In this scenario, what will be the outcome of Europe’s ongoing efforts to establish an alternative to NATO? Who will lead it? The answers to many such critical questions remain uncertain. Ultimately, Europe’s tension stems from both Russia and America.
Who Is The Number One Enemy Of Trump?
Furthermore, America is more tensed about China than Russia. Trump, who considers China as enemy number one, sees more benefit in standing with Russia than Europe. But, it is difficult to predict what Trump will do and say. But, China has already started apprehending a big danger. In such a situation, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has moved forward the script to build better relations with India. Wang Yi says that India and China should work together instead of competing with each other.
Chinese President Xi Jinping Is Also On Edge
Chinese President Xi Jinping is also uneasy about Donald Trump’s second term, knowing well that Trump can make unpredictable decisions at any moment. Notably, as a precautionary measure, Xi has increased the defense budget by over 7%. To strengthen its naval power, China is advancing the construction of a fourth aircraft carrier. A few months ago, satellite images revealed a state-of-the-art aircraft carrier under construction at the Guangdong shipyard. Still, international media reports indicate that China is actively developing several advanced warships.
The United States may leverage Taiwan to tighten its grip on China and push for a stronger QUAD alliance to encircle Beijing. Currently, QUAD includes the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia.
In this scenario, India faces two possible outcomes—one favorable and the other challenging. On the positive side, with rapidly shifting global dynamics, European nations will likely seek to strengthen ties with India. Several countries across Europe and Asia may turn to India for arms purchases to bolster their border security, offering India a significant opportunity to establish itself as a key player in the global arms market.
On the downside, China’s increasing military budget may force India to raise its own defense spending to ensure border security, creating additional financial pressure.
Impact Of Trump’s Decisions Began To Surface
At present, two types of trends can be clearly felt in President Trump’s decisions. First, he is reversing every decision of the Biden administration, which was considered an achievement of the previous government. By doing this, Trump is trying to prove Biden useless and incompetent. Second, he is looking for friends for the America First and Make America Great Again missions. Meaning, there is no hesitation in abandoning the rules and regulations made after the Second World War. Additionally, he is working on the script of a new alliance according to America’s needs.
Trump knows very well that it is impossible to control China without involving India. However, he also knows that India’s diplomacy has always been—and will always remain—independent of pressure and influence. In this situation, the Trump administration would not want to risk angering India at any cost. Sir Alex Younger, former head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service MI-6, argues that the world is at a turning point where international relations will not be measured by rules.
The world is entering a new era of diplomacy and foreign policy. In which powerful countries and strategies made according to them dominate, this is what Donald Trump thinks, this is what Putin and Xi Jinping think too. Even though Russia and China came closer after the Ukraine war, Putin also understands that in the current world order, Russia faces more threat from China than America. Diplomacy is also a strange thing, in which one cannot know friend and foe. One cannot know when a friend becomes an enemy and an enemy becomes a friend. Currently, work is going on on the script to balance power across the world, in which work is being done to define relationships in a new way.
