Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to often say, “Friends can be changed, but neighbours cannot.” In the west of India lies a neighbouring country called Pakistan. Predicting the future there is extremely difficult—a place where anything can happen at any time. The people of Pakistan, with a population exceeding 250 million, are anxious and fearful that their country could break apart once again.
Currently, Pakistan has an elected government led by Shahbaz Sharif, with Asif Ali Zardari serving as President. The courts, led by the Supreme Court, are the decision-making authority in any dispute. However, the real power in Pakistan rests with General Asim Munir, who is the Chief of Defence Forces for the next five years.
Pakistan is witnessing a situation unique to it. General Munir has even amended the constitution to appoint himself as Field Marshal for life. Moreover, he has ensured that no legal case can be filed against him. It is evident that readers might question why we should care. But often, when a fire erupts in a neighbour’s house, the flames end up reaching our premises as well. An unstable Pakistan can be a source of concern for India.
The way Pakistan is being ruled now bears resemblance to the 1971 model under General Yahya Khan, which led the country into two parts and the surrender of 93,000 Pakistani soldiers in Dhaka. Is Pakistan heading in the same direction today? Has General Munir already put Pakistan in the hands of the United States and China? Is he aligned with the U.S. or China? If the two powers clash, which side will Pakistan stand on? Why is former U.S. President Trump so favorable toward General Munir? And if Chinese President Xi Jinping gets upset, what will Pakistan do?
What adds to the worries of the people of Pakistan
The memories of 1971 haunt the people of Pakistan. It is possible they remember the images of Pakistani army officers and soldiers surrendering at the Racecourse Ground in Dhaka—the largest surrender in modern military history. They remember General Yahya Khan, who brutally suppressed Bengali nationalism in what was then East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, causing widespread atrocities. Many people fled to India to escape the Pakistani army’s repression.
The Indian army entered East Pakistan on December 3, and by the evening of December 13, they surrounded Dhaka. Key locations like Hili, Bogra, Rangpur, Sylhet, Atgram, Mymensingh, Jamalpur, and Tangail were already under Indian control. The Pakistani soldiers fighting in East Pakistan had no idea what the outcome of the battle would be. Doubts also lingered about how much support the U.S. could provide to Pakistan.
Although Pakistan is not currently fighting another country, a major internal struggle is ongoing. Fifty-five years ago, the suppression of Bengali nationalism led to Pakistan’s split. Today, General Munir faces challenges from Sindhi, Baloch, and Pashtun nationalism. To control these uprisings, he appears to be planning to divide Pakistan into smaller provinces. The emerging blueprint suggests that Pakistan could be split from four provinces into twelve, with eight new provinces added.
Currently, Pakistan’s population is distributed as follows: Punjab – 53%, Sindh – 23%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – 17%, and Balochistan – 6%. Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan have long-standing movements for independence, similar to how East Pakistanis resisted Western Pakistan’s dominance before 1971.
General Munir’s Consolidation of Power
General Munir has now become so powerful that he has promoted himself to Field Marshal and appointed himself Chief of Defence Forces for the next five years. Essentially, all military power is concentrated in his hands. His biggest challenge is handling the unrest among the people. This is why there is a push to divide the current four provinces into twelve.
Abdul Aleem Khan, Pakistan’s Communications Minister, has confirmed that the creation of smaller provinces is inevitable, arguing that smaller provinces will allow better administrative control and improved public services. Each current province—Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—could be split into three smaller units. The main aim behind this division is to weaken Sindhi, Baloch, and Pashtun nationalism and dilute political power.
The Pakistan Peoples Party, including Shahbaz Sharif, opposes this plan, and Bilawal Bhutto has clearly stated that the division of Sindh is unacceptable. The Baloch nationalist party has regarded this strategy as “divide and rule.” Smaller provinces could weaken the political power of major parties: Sindh is a stronghold of the Bhutto family, Punjab is dominated by the Sharif family, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is controlled by Imran Khan’s party. With former Prime Minister Imran Khan imprisoned, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf activists are protesting on the streets.
Pakistan has nominal control in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where fighting insurgents has been extremely difficult for the Pakistani army. This is why General Munir wants to create new provinces in these regions, strengthening army and government control. However, the way this plan is progressing suggests that conditions in Pakistan may worsen rather than improve.
U.S., China, and Pakistan: The Act of Strategic Balancing
Pakistani civilians fear that General Munir might take steps that could cause their country to fragment. He has consolidated power without the involvement of the civilian government, against Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s wishes. Even senior army generals in Rawalpindi opposed his rise. Yet he succeeded because he enjoys backing from the United States, particularly from President Trump.
The past is replete with examples of how things might proceed. President Nixon had empowered General Yahya Khan in 1971, in the same manner that Trump has been supportive of Munir, viewing him as a key partner to secure rare earth minerals in Balochistan. The IMF recently approved a $1.2 billion economic aid package to Pakistan under strict conditions. The U.S. has also approved a $686 million F-16 upgrade package, including new avionics, missiles, and logistical support.
General Munir is skillfully balancing relations with both the U.S. and China. Pakistan is part of China’s $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and over the past five years, China has supplied 81% of Pakistan’s weapons. Munir also harbors rivalry with jailed Imran Khan, who had sought to strengthen relations between Islamabad and Beijing while opposing the U.S.
If a direct clash occurs between the U.S. and China, Pakistan may be forced to choose sides. Munir seems to be aiming to position himself in a way that allows him to maintain leverage with both powers, securing aid, weapons, and strategic advantage while positioning Pakistan as a key player in South Asia.
Implications for India
India must draw experience from the past—the lessons of 1971, when the Soviet Union strongly supported India, China remained passive, and the U.S. maneuvered diplomatically. India defeated Pakistan, leading to the creation of Bangladesh. Today, India faces a complex multipolar world with shifting alliances. Following the Pulwama attack, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting terrorist bases in Pakistan.
The Pakistan Army’s control over the country, particularly under General Munir, means they may resume supporting cross-border terrorism against India. Pakistan’s internal divisions, combined with its nuclear capability, create the risk of the country fragmenting into multiple zones—some influenced by China, some by the U.S., some by the Taliban, and others by Iran.
The 250 million people of Pakistan are deeply concerned, while Indians are watching how military generals have jeopardized a potentially stable country for their personal gains. Munir’s name means “bright” or “shining,” but the critical question remains: is General Munir leading Pakistan toward light, or into darkness?
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