When Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, the prevailing belief was that Kyiv would soon fall, and the rest of the country would struggle against a much larger enemy army. However, the Ukrainian army proved they could not be underestimated, demonstrating their ability to at least slow Russian advances. But nearly three years later, the Ukrainian forces continue to resist, though they remain reliant on financial and military support from the West.
Russia continues to pour significant resources into its military efforts, using heavy weaponry and forces to gain small but steady territorial advances in the approximately one-fifth of Ukraine it has controlled. Despite these gradual gains, the situation remains tense as Ukraine’s resilience and continued resistance, bolstered by Western support, push back against Russian efforts.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to swiftly bring an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, though details remain unclear about how he plans to achieve this or which side his actions might ultimately favor. Experts believe that Trump might consider pressuring an end to the war by halting weapon supplies to Ukraine. Such a move could significantly impact the ongoing conflict, but it remains to be seen how this strategy would unfold and what consequences it might have for Ukraine’s resistance efforts.
Here are the key developments in the Russia-Ukraine war up to December 2024:
2014
Amid a popular uprising in Kyiv, forces loyal to pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich killed scores of demonstrators, prompting Yanukovich to flee to Russia. In response, Moscow seized Crimea, swiftly annexing the peninsula and supported an armed rebellion in Donbas, where rebels declared two “people’s republics.” The conflict claimed thousands of lives before the Minsk accords established a fragile ceasefire, freezing the frontlines but leaving the fate of the rebel-occupied areas unresolved.
Feb. 22, 2022: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the bloodiest conflict since World War II. After building up forces for months but denying plans for an invasion, President Vladimir Putin orders tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine in a “special military operation”. The invaders attack from the north, northeast and east, and make rapid initial advances, largely avoiding population centres, leaving behind a grim scene with streets in villages and towns littered with bodies.
Western intelligence agencies predict Ukraine could fall within days, but even in the initial hours there are signs that the Russian battle plan is faltering as Ukraine repels Russian commandos attempting to seize an airbase north of Kyiv as a beachhead for a swift assault on the capital.
Feb-April, 2022: Advancing Russian forces halted at the outskirts of Kyiv after meeting stiffer-than-expected resistance. Despite being outgunned and outmanned, Kyiv’s forces successfully resisted Moscow’s initial assault and regained territory in the latter half of 2022. Moscow announces its aim is now to protect and expand the territory controlled by its proxies in the east. Ceasefire talks are held but fail to halt the fighting, with Moscow demanding recognition of its territorial gains and Kyiv vowing to recover its land.
May 20, 2022: Russian forces capture Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine after a three-month siege, Kyiv estimates more than 20,000 civilians were killed. The city, home to 450,000 people before the war, is largely destroyed. This marks the completion of Russia’s control over Ukraine’s southeastern coast, securing the vital land bridge that connects Russia to Crimea.
Sept 2022: Ukrainian forces made an unexpected breakthrough in the northeast, reclaiming almost all of the Russian-occupied territory in Kharkiv province. In response, Putin declared the annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces in the east and south, while ordering a mobilization of reservists. This move prompted hundreds of thousands of Russian men to flee the country in an attempt to escape conscription.
Nov. 2022: In a significant victory, Ukrainian forces retook the city of Kherson and the surrounding countryside in southern Ukraine, pushing Russian troops back across the Dnipro River. This marked the last major shift in the front lines before the conflict settled into a grueling phase of attritional trench warfare, where both sides made only slow progress against well-entrenched defenders.
Dec. 2022-May 2022: After Ukraine’s successes in late 2022, Western nations, led by the U.S., pledged billions in weapons to support Kyiv’s counteroffensive. Meanwhile, Russia fortified its defenses, launched missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, and focused its ground offensive on Bakhmut, led by the Wagner group. Despite the pressure, Ukraine chose to defend Bakhmut rather than retreat.
January-May 2023: Several NATO countries pledged to send tanks to Ukraine, which also requested fighter jets — though that request remains unfulfilled. The war has reached a stalemate, with both sides suffering heavy losses for minimal progress.
March 23, 2023: The International Criminal Court in The Hague issues arrest warrants for Russian officials, including Putin, over alleged war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied areas. Moscow rejects the charges and criticizes the court. By June 5, 2024, Ukrainian prosecutors have opened investigations into over 129,000 alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces.
May 20, 2023: Russian forces finally capture Bakhmut after nine months of fighting, in Europe’s bloodiest land battle since World War Two. The capture of the mostly abandoned and destroyed city has little strategic value, but both sides suffer heavy, crippling losses.
June 23-24, 2023: Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stages a mutiny, vowing to overthrow Russia’s military leadership, which he holds responsible for battlefield failures. His forces quickly march toward Moscow, encountering little resistance, but suddenly stand down after a deal is negotiated by Belarus’s leader. Two months later, Prigozhin and his top allies are killed in a plane crash.
Ukraine fights back
June-December 2023: With billions of dollars in Western weapons, including advanced tanks, Ukraine begins its long-anticipated counteroffensive to reclaim territory occupied by Russian forces. The Ukrainian forces attempt to pierce the Russian defensive line at multiple points along the southern front but fail to achieve the breakthrough.
February 2024
After the first year of the war, both Russia and Ukraine found themselves in a stalemate, with little movement on the frontlines as the conflict entered its third year. In February 2024, Russian forces captured the town of Avdiivka. As Ukraine faced a shortage of ammunition, relentless Russian airstrikes broke through their defenses in the Donetsk region. However, after successfully defending against Russia’s push in the eastern Kharkiv region, Ukraine made a bold move by launching a surprise attack into Russia’s Kursk region. This unexpected advance has given Ukraine valuable leverage in any potential ceasefire talks, as it still holds some of the land in the region.
April-May 2024:After the setback of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, Russian forces gain the upper hand, leveraging their larger manpower and firepower. Ukraine reports shortages of weapons and ammunition, as foreign aid slows down, including a $61 billion package blocked by Republicans in the U.S. Congress. After months of delay, the U.S. House of Representatives finally approves the aid on April 21. In May, Russian forces open a new front with an assault on Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv province, which Kyiv’s commanders say risks diverting resources from defending against the main Russian effort in the east.
May 2024: A new mobilisation law comes into force that will make it easier for Ukraine to call up more men to fight. The number of new recruits the legislation will provide is unclear, but it could involve hundreds of thousands of people.
1,000 Days of Conflict: A Snapshot of the Battlefield’s Shifting Landscape
By the end of the first year of war, both Russia and Ukraine were locked in a deadlock, with little progress made on the frontlines as the conflict stretched into its third year. In February 2024, Russian forces captured the town of Avdiivka. As Ukraine struggled with dwindling ammunition, Russia’s relentless airstrikes caused significant damage to Ukrainian defenses in the Donetsk region. Despite this, Ukraine successfully repelled Russia’s advances in the eastern Kharkiv region and, in a surprising turn, launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. This move has given Ukraine valuable bargaining power in potential ceasefire discussions, as they continue to hold territory there.
The War of Attrition and the Need for External Resources
According to AFP, Russia — like Ukraine — has turned to allies for help in order to keep the war going. Iran supplies Russia with drones and possibly missiles, and North Korea has sent ammunition — and even troops, who have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed this year that 700,000 of his troops are fighting in Ukraine. Analysts say Putin would need a much larger force to accelerate Russia’s advance, but that he is unlikely to mobilize more troops because it could stoke internal discontent.
Reports also say that, Ukraine has asked the West for longer range missiles and its blessing to fire at air bases deep inside Russia. But its allies have so far resisted, wary of escalating tensions with a nuclear-armed Russia.
Comparison of the military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine as of 2024
According to Statista, a German online platform specializing in data, the estimated available manpower for Russia in 2024 is 69,432,472, compared to Ukraine’s 22,806,303.
Russia has 1,320,000 active soldiers, while Ukraine has 900,000 active personnel. Additionally, Russia has reserve forces and paramilitary units totaling 2,250,000, whereas Ukraine’s reserve and paramilitary strength stands at 1,300,000.
In terms of aircraft, Russia boasts 4,255 total aircraft, including 1,547 helicopters and 809 fighter jets. In contrast, Ukraine operates 321 aircraft, including 130 helicopters and 72 fighter jets.
There are several analyses that conclude that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will in every way be dependent on the U.S government’s position regarding the two nations. The prospective Trump administration would be key in determining the course of the war. During the presidential campaign, when Trump faced Vice President Ms. Harris in one of their debates, it has been reported that, on two occasions, US president Trump could not bring himself to answer a direct question regarding his support for Ukraine. Indeed, this has raised fears that Kyiv may be compelled to accept a deal with even more externally imposed constraints in any peace talks. Interestingly enough, Trump, who has always touted his good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has also voiced strong disapproval of US aid for Ukraine on several occasions.
