As the US Presidential Election 2024 nears, the latest poll indicates a neck-to-neck race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the key battleground states of Arizona and Nevada.

According to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, Harris has 48 percent support among likely voters in Arizona, with Trump at 47 percent. In Nevada, Trump leads by a margin of 48 percent compared to 47 percent, CNN reported.

These narrow margins are within the poll’s margin of error, indicating no clear frontrunner in either state.
The surveys show that voters’ opinions are largely set regarding which candidate would handle key issues better and neither candidate has significantly swayed a majority of voters on attributes such as caring for their constituents, sharing a vision for the country, or prioritising national interests over personal gain, as per CNN.

While the race in Nevada has remained stable since late August, recent results in Arizona indicate a shift towards Harris, especially among core Democratic demographics like women, Latino voters, and younger voters, with women supporting Harris by a 16-point margin, whereas men favour Trump by 14 points.
In Nevada, Harris holds a narrower lead among women (51 per cent to 46 per cent), with Trump having a significant advantage among White voters–leading by 15 points among White men and 12 points among White women, CNN reported.

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Hispanic voters in Nevada are nearly evenly split, while Harris leads significantly among voters under 35.
Independent voters in Arizona are divided, with Trump at 45 percent and Harris at 43 percent. In Nevada independent likely voters favour Harris 46 percent to 43 percent, showing little change since August.
Democratic candidates for the US Senate in both states appear to be in a strong position. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 51 percent to 43 percent. In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is ahead of Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 percent to 41 percent.
In Arizona proposed amendment to establish a constitutional right to abortion has strong support, with 60 percent of likely voters in favour.

Both states have a robust early and mail-in voting process. According to the polls, 55 per cent of likely voters in Arizona and 42 per cent in Nevada report having already voted and more registered Republicans have voted early compared to registered Democrats, CNN reported.

In Arizona Harris still leads among those early votes (53 per cent to 44 per cent for Trump), while in Nevada Trump has the advantage (52 per cent to 46 per cent).
Around one-fifth of voters in both states believe neither candidate is honest and trustworthy, which is a higher rejection rate than for other personal traits.

Confidence in the accuracy of ballot casting and counting has increased since late August. About 81 per cent of likely voters in Nevada (up 10 points since August) and 76 per cent in Arizona (up 8 points) express at least some confidence in the process. This increase is primarily among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Despite these gains, trust in the electoral process remains significantly lower among Republicans compared to Democrats in both states. In Arizona, 69 percent of Democratic-aligned likely voters are very confident, compared with just 21 percent of Republican-aligned voters. The disparity is even larger in Nevada where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning voters are very confident, compared to 16 percent of Republican-leaning voters.

The polling was conducted from October 21-26, 2024, with 781 voters in Arizona and 683 in Nevada The likely voter samples were weighted for predicted voting behaviour, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona and 4.6 points in Nevada.

Meanwhile, according to the latest presidential forecast by The Hill, former President Trump bests the current Vice President Harris with the former having 54 per cent support and the latter 46 per cent.
The former Republican President holds a narrow lead in five of six “toss-up” states- Nevada, Arizona Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin–while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan. However, the gap remains within the typical polling error, as reported by The Hill.

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