Washington: US intelligence community assumes that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is unlikely to achieve its key goal of reaching the southeastern city of Melitopol.
This assessment suggests that Kyiv will fail to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s campaign, as reported by The Washington Post.
The evaluation is based on Russia’s effective defense of occupied areas, employing minefields and trenches. This outcome could lead to scrutiny in Kyiv and Western capitals, questioning why a counteroffensive armed with billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and military equipment from the West couldn’t achieve its objectives.
US officials have disclosed that Ukrainian forces, approaching Melitopol from Robotyne, over 50 miles away, will not reach the city itself.
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The Washington Post conducted interviews with US, Western, and Ukrainian government officials, who spoke under anonymity to discuss classified military activities. The US Directorate of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Melitopol is a pivotal point for Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as it serves as an entry point to Crimea. The city’s strategic location, where two major highways intersect with a railway line, enables Russia to move military personnel and equipment from the peninsula to other seized territories in southern Ukraine.
The US officials anticipate that Ukraine’s efforts to reclaim Russian-occupied territory will falter before reaching Melitopol. Ukrainian soldiers are currently pushing south from the village of Robotyne.
In June, Ukraine launched its counteroffensive to replicate the success of the previous year’s push into the Kharkiv region. Despite employing recently acquired Western weaponry, including US Bradley armored vehicles and German Leopard 2 tanks, Ukraine suffered substantial casualties during the initial week against Russia’s well-prepared defenses.
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Joint war exercises between the US, British, and Ukrainian forces anticipated such losses, with the expectation that Kyiv would consider them an acceptable cost to breach Russia’s first defensive line.
However, Ukraine chose to advance with smaller units along the front to minimize battlefield casualties. Consequently, Ukraine made limited progress over the summer in various areas.
Despite deploying additional reserves, including Stryker and Challenger troops, Kyiv has yet to breach Russia’s primary defensive line.
Rob Lee, a military analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, noted the difficulty of the route to Melitopol and the challenge of retaking nearby cities like Tokmak. “Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,” he stated.
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The dire forecast has triggered a blame game in private discussions, leading certain Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill to question President Biden’s proposal for an additional $20.6 billion in aid for Ukraine. The administration has faced criticism for delaying the delivery of more potent weaponry to Ukraine.
US officials counter claims that different weaponry, such as F-16 fighter jets or longer-range missile systems, would have altered the outcome. “The problem remains piercing Russia’s main defensive line, and there’s no evidence these systems would’ve been a panacea,” stated a senior US administration official.
