Nepal is the latest to have severe turmoil in the Indian subcontinent. The swift turn of events leading to collapse of the KP Sharma ‘Oli’ government, burning of the Parliament, houses of former prime ministers, ministers and chasing of the finance minister and other political leaders is a stark reminder of the Bangladesh events a year back on August 5, 2024. Oil resigned amid mounting violence.
An interesting similarity is that the army chief in Bangladesh in 2024 and now in Nepal have taken control of the country. The army as it appears remains in control in Bangladesh but apparently not involved directly in political actions, though he had talked to the aspiring youth marchers in Dhaka. In Kathmandu, too Nepal Army chief, Ashok Raj Sigdel, urges the youth protesters, now called Gen Z, to join him for talks and the way forward.
The surging crowds were ruthlessly fired upon, in Kathmandu, killing at least 19 persons and injuring over 300, on September 8. The lack of empathy and irresponsive government actions led the anguished people to go on rampage the next day. Though it is said to be a leaderless violence, the sequence of events point to systematic selections of targets as well as preparations for igniting passion and apparently the unidentified leadership that had enough of material and skill for arson and igniting buildings, offices and government property. It is yet to be assessed who were supporting them.
The crowds surge, goes out in protest against banning of 26 social media platforms, the only fora to vent anguish. Most Nepal newspapers or electronic channels toe the official policies. Even one of the most popular daily Kantipur Post’s, known for pro-rulers, offices were burnt. The government says that they wanted the apps to register with the communication ministry. And the apps violated the government call. While free expression is necessity, could the carrier be obstinate and arrogant? Almost over 90 percent platforms have high Western investments.
The social media connects but has also been fomenting many social and political problems in the Arab world and elsewhere. The respective countries have not developed a parallel system as China has done. There are some apprehensions about the platforms and whether these are being used for purposes other than free exchange of expressions. The regulation in most Asian countries, including the subcontinent, has been a matter of discussion.
There are also issues about the viability of apps operating in economically weak countries. Most Indian news system have hardly any footprint outside the borders. Nepal or Bangladesh is as foreign to us as a Latin American country. The Nepal crisis should alert India of its feeble news gathering. The news is culmination of an action or the lack of remedy. Frustration in Nepalese, society has been building up. Since the 2015 earthquake, the economy is on a roll. The youth face one of the biggest joblessness in Asia, at 20.8 percent in 2024 among the 15-24 age group, according to World Bank. The youth flocking to India, Gulf and Malaysia for work contribute 33.1 percent of the GDP as remittances.
The grievances are not related just to the cruel firing. It’s years of frustration, elitism, nepotism, graft and deprivation. Despite poverty reduction, this has not been achieved through significant domestic growth, investment, or job creation, leaving the economy with a weak foundation. Frequent changes in governance and leadership lead to policy fluctuations, hindering long-term economic planning and development. The revolutionary changes sudden growth of Maoists in 2006, overwhelming the monarchy and the mainstream parties, did not change the economy. No government could have a single party majority in two decades. Many say that this is good for Nepal with in-built buffers. The economic growth, however, is slow. The growth rate is around 4.2 percent between 1996-2023. Successive governments have not been able to do much once they got into power.
Poverty was 97.1 percent in 1999. The country claims to have brought it down to 52.6 percent. The economy largely in private hands controlled by certain caste or ethnic groups is highly profit oriented. This is a complex issue, several factors explain the extensive influence of these people in the country’s business sector. Most ventures are not job intensive. The Nepalese government or society has not been able to solve the issues or leverage the influence of business houses.
Nepal’s economy has grown slower than peers’ during the past over ten years. The growth is statistical and anything but impressive. Post conflict, since 2007 and repeated natural shocks like earthquake or floods. High foreign currency remittances have created another problem. It has led to over-valuation of its currency generating headwinds for its exports. Migrants returning from mostly the Middle East find integration with the society difficult.
Rising prices in Nepal are a significant concern, driven by factors like high food and fuel costs, external shocks, and disruptions from natural disasters, which impacted households and businesses. Prices for staples like rice, vegetables, and lentils, as well as fuel, are major drivers of the inflation rate. Nepal’s reliance on imports, particularly from India, meant that global and Indian commodity price hikes (including fuel) and trade restrictions have a direct inflationary impact.
The economy, according to World Bank, preformed worse than comparable countries in lower middle-income status with high vulnerabilities for multiple reasons. It has not performed as good as Bangladesh, Bolivia, Kyrgyz, Laos, Cambodia or Moldova. All these countries have achieved higher income levels than Nepal. There is yet another syndrome that strikes Nepal. The rich-poor gap is increasing and so are social disparities.
Nepal has the potential to achieve faster economic growth by implementing key reforms in areas like migration, exports, hydropower, and digitalization, according to the World Bank. Unlocking opportunities in high-potential sectors such as tourism and the digital economy, alongside infrastructure development and a competitive business environment, are crucial steps to increase prosperity and create jobs, according to a World Bank report. This is, however, more a theory for a trouble-torn country.
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