Will a full-fledged Israel- Iran War begin soon after Tel Aviv pounded the missile manufacturing facilities of the Shiite nation Saturday morning? Though Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has kept restraint and refused to come under the pressure of hard-line politicians so far, how long will he be able to ignore the dictates of supreme religious leader Ali Khamenei?
US Warns Iran
Though Washington has urged Iran not to retaliate, the early signs have shown that Tehran may choose to hit back this time. A senior US administration official said in a statement if Iran chooses to respond once again, there would be consequences. Though Washington clarified it did not want to see this happen again, it reiterated it should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran.
Also Read: Explained: Has Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah War Escalated Into A Fight To The Finish?
The things became clear after Israel said in a statement that the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.
Israel Tests Iran’s Patience
Israel upped the ante against Iran on April 1, 2024, when it carried out an airstrike on the Iranian embassy complex in the Syrian capital city of Damascus and destroyed the building housing its consular section.
8 Islamic Revolutionary Guards Killed In Syria
Tel Aviv came under scathing attack and widespread demonstrations were held across Iran after 16 people were killed. People were upset and they demanded action against the Jewish nation as eight officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) died in the attack.
However, Tehran maintained restraint and did not retaliate.
When Hamas attacked Israel on October 8, 2023, killed more than 1,200 people, and took hostage more than 250 innocent civilians, including octogenarian women and toddlers, the intention of such unnecessary hostility was questioned even by those who support Hamas and the Palestinian cause.
Did Hamas Intend To Sabotage Abraham Accord?
Experts doubted the intention of the Palestinian militant outfit. Some of them believed it was to derail the Abraham Accord signed by Israel with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan and put the Palestinian question back on the map.
The Importance Of Being Masoud Pezeshkian
When Masoud Pezeshkian was elected President of the Islamic Republic in July, experts believed Iran would embark on a new path of cooperation with the US so that the economic sanctions slapped upon it could be relaxed at least, if not removed completely.
The election of Pezeshkian was hailed as a new chapter in Iran. It was believed that Tehran would not join a full-fledged war with Israel so that it could keep its relationship with the US on a better footing and address its own problems in the economy.
Will Pazeshkian Bite The Bullet?
However, the equation may change now. Iran did not respond in a dangerous way to hit Israel and maintained restraint for a long time though it had continued supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
Pezeshkian has been caught in a bizarre situation as it is difficult to ignore the successive rounds of strikes and counter-strikes because Iran may be considered a weak country if it does not hit back. Earlier on October 1, Iran hit back at Israel after the Jewish state attacked its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran With Its Back On Wall
Political experts believe Tehran is pushed to a corner and with its back on the wall, it is bound to attack Israel. It may fire ballistic missiles to Israel and encourage allies and proxies. It is likely to further boost the war preparedness of Hezbollah and supply Houthi fighters with more lethal missiles.
US Deploys Troops In Gulf
However, Iran may think twice before deciding to retaliate because if Tehran and its allies attack Israel, it may further complicate the already tense Middle East situation, making it more vulnerable than before. Washington may find it difficult not to respond to any potential Iranian attack as it has many military bases in the Gulf. It has also the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet operating on a strategic port in Bahrain.
US Allies May Stay Away
The Pentagon has made its intention clear by deploying about 100 military personnel to Israel to man its Thaad air defense system. On the other hand, many Gulf Arab governments want to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict, they have made it clear in the most unambiguous terms that they would not allow their countries to be used in an Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic.
The closest ally of the US, Saudi Arabia also does not want to get involved in the conflict as an Iran-backed militia in Iraq inflicted severe damage on its petrochemical installations in a single drone and missile attack in 2019.
The war fronts have been opened, the lines of conflict are drawn, the warring sides are identified, and they are just waiting for the most opportune moments to hit the enemy and bring it to its knees with the minimum damage to itself. The million-dollar question is- will Pezeshkian get trapped in the Israeli design and risk being derailed?
