The newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 has caught the attention of scientists because out of one in a million it might hit Earth in December 2032. The asteroid, approximately the same size as the Statue of Liberty, was discovered in late December 2024.

The original impact probability was about 1 in 83, but new calculations have now placed it at 1 in 43, or roughly 2.3%. This puts it on a short list of objects that NASA deems potentially hazardous. Despite the increasing odds, experts say there is no cause for alarm.

Interesting situation – if the probability remains this high then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission – which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time. It’s as if the Universe has decided to do an… https://t.co/Leic2rdLaU

— Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox) February 8, 2025

The Torino Impact Hazard Scale rates it a 3, meaning a close encounter that still requires continued observation. Scientists are tracking the asteroid to better understand its path. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the asteroid’s size to be between 40 and 100 meters. If the asteroid were to hit Earth, it could cause severe regional damage. An impact would release energy equivalent to about 15 megatons of TNT, which is a hundred times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.

More data means a better understanding of the asteroid’s orbit, which in turn increases the chance of impact. Improved tracking data decreases uncertainty about the path, though this can sometimes temporarily raise impact estimates. Experts expect that as more observations are made, the chances of an impact will likely decrease.

Even with the rising chances, ESA states that asteroid 2024 YR4 has nearly a 99% chance of missing Earth’s path in 2032. Space agencies like NASA and ESA will continue to monitor the asteroid while collecting data to refine their predictions.

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