Will the beleaguered BJP use the divisive slogan “katenge toh batenge (“we will be killed if we are divided”) to consolidate the Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Communities among Hindus before the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024? The slogan used in the Haryana Assembly Elections is most likely to reverberate across Maharashtra, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeating it.

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath raised this slogan appealing to Hindus to unite, warning them that if they don’t do so, they will be defeated by non-Hindus. Though he did not name any community, it is clear that Muslims were his target and it was a hate speech, though in a subtle way.

Ploy To Consolidate Hindu Votes?

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) echoed the slogan and made it clear that it will pick it up again in Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024. This is evident from the fact that Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Hindutva outfit, reached out to the Dalits in his Vijaydashmi speech and urged society to abolish discrimination based on caste.

He questioned why only Dalits should celebrate the birth anniversary of poet Valmiki, who composed the Hindu grand epic of Ramayan when the entire Hindu society reads and respects the holy book.

RSS Sends Strong Signals To Dalits

It was considered that the RSS wanted to show the right signals to the people at the margins and reach out to them so that they vote for the saffron party. Considering the caste dynamics, the role they could play in the forthcoming polls, and the lessons the BJP has learned from the Lok Sabha Election 2024, it is clear that the Hindutva-based party wanted to ensure it gets the votes of Hindus.

Maharashtra Caste Conundrum

As the SC constitutes 11.81% and the OBC 52% of the votes, the BJP-led Mah Yuti or the MY in Maharashtra has decided to go to the polls under the leadership of CM Eknath Shinde, who belongs to the SC.

The saffron party took extra care and decided to walk the extra mile after its seat tally came down from 10 to five in Haryana and from 23 to nine in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha Election polls.

The party suffered considerably as it failed to counter the Congress propaganda that the Constitution would be amended abolishing reservation to SC/ST if the BJP won the parliamentary elections.

Will BJP Woo SC, OBC?

Taking lessons from the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, the saffron party decided to woo the SC, ST, and OBC while keeping its base intact among its traditional vote bank of upper caste Hindus.

The BJP is confident on two grounds- there would be no consolidation of Muslim votes against it unlike the Lok Sabha Elections and secondly, the voters of the SC community, particularly Ambedkarites would come back to its fold, helping it win a good number of seats in Maharashtra Assembly Elections.

Anti- Maratha Consolidation

Analysts also believe the BJP would knowingly try to attack the Maratha reservation so that a counter-consolidation takes place in its favour. This strategy was tested in Haryana and it paid the party rich dividends. As the Congress put its weight behind the Jat community and made its community patriarch Bhupinder Singh Hooda its icon and the CM face, non-Jat communities particularly those belonging to SC, consolidated against the most strong community and won the Haryana Assembly Election 2024 easily.

It is believed that the saffron party may use the same strategy to upset the Congress apple cart in Maharashtra. It has pinned its hopes on rallying all other communities to stop Maratha votes. Maharashtra has about 28% – 33% Maratha votes, which can be considered a sizeable number. However, it wants to antagonize this community so that there is backlash and non-Maratha voters consolidate.

Will BJP Rake Up Aggressive Hindutva?

The political leaders believe the ruling party may rake up aggressive Hindutva like it did during the Lok Sabha Election 2024 if its finds a defeat looming large. During the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to the extent of creating a campaign strategy of targeting Muslims deliberately so that the Hindus consolidate behind the BJP. He targeted Congress on the issues of mangal sutra, mutton, mujra, and “Babri lock”, and went on to claim that the world did not know Mahatma Gandhi until Richard Attenborough made the film “Gandhi”.

Will the saffron party do it again if it finds itself on the verge of losing the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024?