Is Pakistan Under Pressure To Improve Ties With India? Will It Scale Down Anti-Kashmir Rhetoric? After the Shahbaz Sharif government invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to participate in the forthcoming meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation scheduled to be held in Islamabad, the international community has kept an eye on the development unfolding.
Will It Break The Ice?
As Pakistan holds the rotating presidency of the 9-member group, it is customary for Islamabad to invite all members, including India and it should not be deemed an extra-ordinary or out-of-the-way gesture. But given the thorny relationship between the two estranged neighbors, it is natural to ask if Pakistan will use this opportunity to break the ice.
Indian prime minister skipped the SCO meeting held last year in Kazhakh capital of Bishkek. Foreign Minister S. Jaishakar attended the Council of Heads of Governments Instead.
Is SCO Tilted Against US?
Both India and Pakistan are members of this group that has been dominated by China and Russia from the beginning. It is perceived to be tilting against the US and in favor of China. Despite being an important player in world politics and a significant stakeholder of the group due to its geostrategic position, India wants to keep its distance from the SCO to send signals to the West.
China Conundrum
Considering the position of India in the Quad and its stance on the Indo-Pacific, India cannot anger the US. It cannot go along with China considering the developments going on in and around the South China Sea. So it is most unlikely that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the SCO meeting in Islamabad.
Pakistan Offers Olive Branch
After a change of hands in Pakistan, the new government offered an olive branch to India by praising the Indian government. Foreign Minister Bilawal Zardari Bhutto also indicated holding talks with its neighboring country. Pak Finance Minister Ishaq Dar also indicated to re-start bilateral trade, which trickled down to a historic low after August 5, 2019. After India abrogated Article 370, abolishing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan imposed excessive tariffs on Indian imports, making it almost impossible to sell in that country. India reciprocated and the bilateral trade came down to a historic low.
Why Does Pakistan Want To Improve Ties With India?
Besides, the Pakistan Army also indicated scaling down it activities along the LoC. It is believed that the Pakistani establishment, including its most important part Pakistan Army, wants to improve relations with India because it is under tremendous pressure. Pakistan is on the verge of economic collapse, the International Monetary Fund agreed to advance it loan under strict conditions, all-weather friend China refused to extend help after a limit and Saudi Arabia too could not help Islamabad in a big way.
Failed Economy Pushes Pakistan
The main problem is that the Pakistani economy has come to such a pass that it has failed in repayment of debt, the value of its currency has come down to a historic low, its exports have trickled down to the minimum and inflation has hit the roof. The economic condition of the South East Asian country is so poor that reports of riots and looting of trucks of flour have emerged.
If Pakistan wants to come out of this quagmire, it must have the guns silent on its borders, and bilateral trade with India must pick up so that it earns dollars and imports goods from India at comparatively cheaper prices.
Will Pakistan Scale Down Anti-India Rants
Caught up in the separatist movement in Balochistan, and terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan wants to have peace with its neighbor. Political analysts believe Pakistan will not scale down its anti-Jammu and Kashmir rant, which has become an essential part of its foreign policy. It is also evident by the fact that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Bilawal Zardari Bhutto raked up the issue several times after taking over. Pakistan Army chief and the head of its intelligence head also talked about Pakistan.
It seems highly improbable that India will bite the Pakistani bait and fall in the line. It is most likely that the Indian prime minister once again skips the SCO meeting and sends Foreign Minister S Jaishankar.
