Will the swing states in the Rust Belt become the kingmakers and decide who occupies the White House?
The Rust Belt is in the Northeastern US, Midwestern US, and the northern parts of the Southern US.
What Is Rust Belt?
The term Rust Belt describes an industry that has “rusted out”, it refers to the impact of deindustrialisation, economic decline, population loss, and urban decay on these regions attributable to the shrinking industrial sector. It denotes the destruction of steelmaking, automobile manufacturing, and coal mining sectors.
The Rust Belt includes the US states of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, Minnesota, small parts of Kentucky, Maryland, and New Jersey.
Swing States In Rust Belt
It has three swing states- Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. While Pennsylvania has 19 electoral- college votes, Michigan has 15 and Wisconsin 10 votes.
These Rust Belt swing states share many similarities in their voter demographics and they have voted the same way at every election since 1992.
If they do the same this year and as the reports say, they may vote for Kamala Harris, giving her 44 electoral- college votes.
If this happens, the Republican candidate will have to get 51 more votes from other states to get the magical figure of 270 to win the US Presidential Election in 2024.
On the other hand, Donald Trump still has a small lead in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
What Happened In Rust Belt In 2016?
Rust Belt is also important because it is the area where the former US President tried to sell his idea of Make America Great Again and America First by holding the Democrat presidents responsible for de-industrialisation of the region.
He tried to convince the people that he would impose extra tariffs on imports so that they face stiff competition in the US and the domestic companies could flourish.
However, he lost all the Rust Belt swing states in the last elections and in this election too, media reports suggest, Kamala Harris has taken a lead in all of these states.
Will Rust Belt Swing States Vote For Kamala Harris?
If media reports are to be believed, Kamala Harris is expected to secure at least 226 electoral votes, while Donald Trump is likely to get at least 219 votes. The key question of who will occupy the White House will be decided by who wins the seven swing states: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and North Carolina (16).
Out of these swing states, three situated in the Rust Belt command 44 electoral – -college votes.
An analysis of the recent election results shows that from the 1990s until 2016, the Democratic Party never lost Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. The reason is that these states have economies centred around industrial sectors like steel, coal, and automobiles.
Why Are Rust Belt Swing States Unhappy?
According to the data from ‘Econofact’, the U.S. steel industry lost 75,000 jobs, and Michigan’s auto industry shed 4,000 jobs by 2019.
However, the main reasons for this loss were a weak global market, increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, and trade instability that led multinational companies to lay off workers.
It can be gauged by the fact that the U.S. Steel and Kennametal in Pennsylvania, and General Motors in Michigan, shut down parts of their factories, while major coal company Murray Energy filed for bankruptcy.
Rest Belt did not flourish under Donald Trump’s regime, it suffered tremendous losses due to his policies of higher tariffs and protectionism. Will it punish Donald Trump again?
