By Ramachandran Ganapathi
Trump’s US Visa Fee Hike: The news emanating from the US never ceases to surprise India and Indians. The latest salvo being the 100k visa fee for H 1b professionals. Now, what are the problems facing? Immediately, it’s going to be a cost shock for employers, companies like TCS, Wipro and others use H, 1b very substantially. And this cost jump is exceptional, and it is bound to have an impact on the delivery model entirely.
Consequently, of course, less applications, and very importantly, entry level positions will be at risk and bringing in people on H, 1b will almost disappear.
Having been associated with an IT company, I can tell you, everyone’s dream as an IT professional is to go to the US, the mother country, for all IT projects, and that’s going to evaporate completely.
There will be disruption in delivery models to start with, but will stabilise and offshoring will be associated with greater near shoring booms where delivery sites, may come up within the reach of the US. And I think we already see things happening, and some of the East European countries like Croatia, etc, and that will get a boost.
And there is bound to be a shift in the business model, as Indian companies reduce dependence on H, 1b based on site staffing, and use it only for highly skilled, high niche and remunerative on site options. And yeah, a lot of professionals may also choose to stay back in India or to move to other countries where opportunities emerge, and countries like Australia and others may start benefiting, attracting Indian talent and H, 1b entrance, particularly those without specialised skills or seniority, could find fewer opportunities, since companies will minimise on cost and so up-skilling is an option to stay relevant even as opportunities get limited, but nothing in the US, as I’ve said in the past, is without a process, and this could face legal challenges, and particularly the manner in which it has been implemented, saying 1201, on 21, September. So these are things that are likely to come under the scrutiny of men in judicial robes.
So we’ll have to wait and see and but this is bound to affect mid and small sized IT firms dependent on sending people under H, 1b professionals early in their careers were will face this problem as their positioning in the US may not justify the high visa cost and but those with Indian companies, which have significantly superior and effective ODC models in India will benefit, and they’ll be able to attract greater talent as many return consequent on this. This, of course, does not appear to apply at this stage to existing H, 1b, Visa owners. But what happens when it comes for renewal is an entirely different ball game. But then three years is not a long period in our country’s history and process.
So we’ll have to wait and see so big cost increases is bound to happen in this on the delivery side, all right, and this will. Lead to some structural arrangement, and the upside for India will be talent retention, and some may like to call it reverse brain drain. But for that, we need to create enough opportunities for our people to stay excited and continue this.
The IT sector, in summary, is coming under increasing stress the past one year, even at another end of the spectrum industry, 4.0 where the velocity of change is very rapid, and the world seamlessly seems to be moving into 5.0 with advent of four GPT. So I think we are in for some stressful times, and I think you do have to give a thought on how to stay relevant in the IT space, even as this creates an opportunity for other countries and professionals.
Ramachandran Ganapathi is the former President of The Southern India Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SICCI), Chairperson of IIT Madras Entrepreneurs Forum and a Geopolitical and international trade expert.
(As told to Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi, Editor, News24online)
