Can Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin achieve the impossible, something that even his father and patriarch of the major Dravidian force, the DMK could not achieve — Win two consecutive assembly elections ever since he became the Chief Minister way back in the mid 70s.
And will Stalin’s attempt to do a Jayalalithaa, who bucked the 40 year old electoral history of Tamil Nadu and won back-to-back elections in 2011 and 2016 succeed?
As things stand today in Tamil Nadu, Stalin may well surprise even his followers and manage to retain power in the assembly elections due next year. Ironically helping him in making electoral history would be his principal adversary, the AIADMK that has considerably weakened after the demise of Amma, as Jayalalithaa was revered.
Ideally, all that the AIADMK and its chief and former Chief Minister Edapaddi Palaniswamy needed to do was to sit tight, consolidate and channel all the anti-establishment sentiments and ensure anti-DMK votes stayed together. But, once he lost power four years ago, he did take full control of the party but lost some of its key leaders and he ousted few influential leaders, each of whom have their pockets of influence and small vote share.
Now in alliance with the BJP under the NDA banner, AIADMK does stand a chance of putting up a tougher fight than his previous elections if only he can strengthen the party and takes back all the factional leaders who are seeking re-entry so as to combine forces and dethrone the DMK. The BJP at the centre also wants this to happen, but thanks to Stalin’s stars, all efforts so far in this direction appear to have fallen flat.
Only the other day, Palaniswamy, called on Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi, for discussions on the forthcoming election preparations, among other things, but after he returned to Tamil Nadu ruled out accommodating any of the leaders who had either earlier quit or were expelled, making it clear that he was the leader of the alliance as far as Tamil Nadu affairs were considered.
Incidentally, Palaniswamy too has been drawing large and enthusiastic crowds in his public meetings as he steps up pre-poll campaigning across the state, and has emerged as a strong AIADMK leader.
Now, this has further piqued TTV Dhinakaran, nephew of Sasikala, the confidante of Jayalalithaa who took control of the party and nearly became the Chief Minister after Jayalalithaa’s demise in 2016. He sharply reacted to Palaniswamy’s assertion, saying that he would prefer to hang himself rather than associate with Palaniswamy, indicating that all efforts to get the different AIADMK leaders to close ranks failed to make headway.
Among those seeking re-entry into the AIADMK are Sasikala, and O Panneerselvam, also a former Chief Minister, each of whom have their own small pockets of influence with small vote share. Meanwhile, another senior AIADMK leader KA Sengottaiyan is threatening to leave the party.
Now, all this must be music to Stalin’s ears, as the DMK led UPA alliance is stronger on the ground and is appearing to be working.
More over, Stalin is cleverly painting AIADMK as a party that has surrendered to the BJP and criticises Palaniswamy for running to Delhi to settle even the small, small problems within the AIADMK.
Cleverly he is painting Palaniswamy as corrupt when he says, “Palaniswamy wants to safeguard himself from raids by central agencies. He did nothing for the state when he was in power, and did not have th courage to raise his voice against the centre to safeguard the interests of the state.” Stalin was speaking at a rally yesterday.
Now queering the pitch for the AIADMK further is the actor turned politician Vijay, who is also drawing huge crowds, notably youth and is expected to take some 8 per cent to 10 per cent votes, and this could spell trouble more for the AIADMK than the DMK.
Yes, he would hurt the DMK too, but chances are the DMK can afford it for the present as its lead over the AIADMK and even taking the NDA as one entity, says Sumanth C Raman, political analyst.
It may not be too incorrect to say, at this stage, the DMK appears to be slightly ahead, but much would depend on what Stalin does in the run upto the elections, said political commentator, Prof Ramu Manivannan of the Madras University.
But if NDA and actor Vijay were to come together, then it will be curtains for DMK regime.
