By Paras Nath Choudhary
The stage is all set for the assembly elections in five major states. The outcome is expected to impact the future of the Narendra Modi government in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The ruling dispensation is banking on its performance and the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who set for himself a global role during the G-20 summit.
The conflagration in West Asia will also indirectly help polarisation of votes, say observers. The Congress-led opposition alliance INDIA is strongly batting to turn the tables with its casteist politics which has gained traction following the countrywide demand for caste census.
The assembly polls for five states including Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are slated to take place next month. The results will be declared on December 3. The polls have assumed unusual significance as they are being held in the build-up to the national vote scheduled for early 2024.
Political commentators say that these polls are the long-awaited ‘manna from heaven,” for frustrated politicians of all political parties as they would get an opportunity to try their luck to enter the poll fray. Pollsters will ravenously binge in the next few weeks. While some analysts argue the outcome of these elections will be the bellwether of the country’s voting behavior in 2024, some others reject it altogether saying there is a world of difference between state elections and the parliamentary election. In the former, local issues overwhelm bigger national issues but just the opposite happens in the national vote. The latter is invariably fought on the exclusion of smaller issues.
Over the years, it has been noticed many times that when mobilized for the national vote the country tends to become broadminded, rejecting parish pump politics. The caste factor in particular gets swept away. But that said, local elections are not without importance, they do play some role however limited in creating a national mood.
Of the five states going to the polls, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are the most crucial. In the former, as per the latest surveys, the BJP is fast gaining ground. The anti-incumbency factor is also pinning Congress down. Despite several newly launched welfare programmes, the government led by Ashok Gehlot is not popular with the common people. And what makes matters worse, warring groups in the party led by the chief minister and by his arch-rival Sachin Pilot are still far away from rapprochement.
Madhya Pradesh could also be a challenge for the Congress. With BJP and former Congressman Madhav Rao Scindia coming together, BJP despite Shivraj Chauhan’s monotonous face could pull off a decent win. The remaining three states are not sending good news for the Congress either. Last but not least, Modi’s marvel is still going strong across the country and Congress seems to have no antidote to it.
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