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Opinion

Marathas, Non-Marathas, And Maharashtra’s Political Chessboard: BJP Faces Tough Choices

The stage is set, the dates are fixed, and the preparations are in full swing, but the main protagonists are not yet ready. No one knows about them, or at least their names have not been announced yet. It is about the swearing-in ceremony of the next Maharashtra government. The decks were cleared for the […]

Srikant Shinde with Eknath Shinde
Srikant Shinde with Eknath Shinde

The stage is set, the dates are fixed, and the preparations are in full swing, but the main protagonists are not yet ready. No one knows about them, or at least their names have not been announced yet.

It is about the swearing-in ceremony of the next Maharashtra government. The decks were cleared for the formation of the new Maharashtra government after the ruling coalition Mahayuti, consisting of the Shiv Sena, the BJP, and the Nationalist Congress Party, won the majority in the 288-member assembly in the recently concluded Maharashtra Elections 2024.

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Political Controversy With Far-Reaching Consequences

However, the suspense over the office of the Maharashtra Chief Minister continues to plague the Mahayuti and the issue has snowballed into a much bigger political controversy that may have far-reaching consequences.

Also Read: ‘Operation Lotus’ In Maharashtra? BJP’s Strategy Amid Shiv Sena’s Growing Resentment

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Though Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde declared that he would not be a hurdle in the government formation and would accept anyone announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the CM, he dropped a much bigger hint at his intention by going to his village in Satara district.

Though he returned to the state capital on Sunday, he maintained a stony silence on the government formation and made his displeasure abundantly clear. 

Will Srikant Shinde Be Deputy CM?

Eknath Shinde has made it clear that he would not be deputy Chief Minister. The BJP has offered Shiv Sena the office of the deputy CM and a good number of important ministries, which many consider as the money-minting departments. However, the BJP wants to keep the Home department with it, something the Eknath Shinde-led party does not want to part ways with.

In an attempt to assuage the frayed feeling of the acting Chief Minister, the saffron party has offered the office of the deputy Chief Minister to Eknath’s son Srikant Shinde. This may be a new beginning for the Shinde family, but it may also trigger a political crisis in the party as most of the party leaders, including some of his trusted lieutenants may find it difficult to accept the greenhorn.

Maratha Displeasure To Cost BJP?

Eknath Shinde has emerged as a leader of Marathas, the community that constitutes about 33% of the state’s population. This community dominates almost all facets of Maharashtra society, from business and economy to politics and employment. It has dominated the politics of the state in such a way that no party can ignore it.

However, the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 was different and set a new ball rolling in the politics of the state, upstaging all earlier equations. It has changed the grammar of politics and brought a paradigm shift in the state’s politics.

BJP’s Game Plan To Check Mate Shinde

Taking the cue from the Haryana Assembly Elections 2024, the BJP made a strategy of upstaging the Congress applecart. Haryana politics has been dominated and dictated by the Jat community, which constitutes about 25% of the state population.

Congress removed all stops to woo the dominating community and handed over all rights to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. 

If media reports are to be believed, the Congress patriarch distributed as many as 72 out of 90 tickets to one community, most of whom were his camp followers. All other communities including the OBC (20%) and Dalits (10%) were ignored.

Haryana Congress Dalit leader Kumari Selja was completely sidelined and she expressed her displeasure clear by keeping herself completely aloof and separated from the election campaign. She reappeared on the political scene in the last week after much persuasion by the party.

Non-Maratha Consolidation?

In an attempt to counter the influence of Marathas, other non-Maratha communities, including the OBCs (20%), Dalits, and the Baniyas (4%) joined hands to checkmate Marathas and voted for the BJP. The Congress lost the polls.

Will a similar consolidation take place in Maharashtra? Will the non-Marathas consolidate to vote against the dominating community of the state?

The local body elections in the state are pending since March 2022 and it should be held in the first quarter of the year 2025. All eyes are set on this election, which may decide if the masses will put their stamp on the result of the state assembly elections or if the state may go further for political churning.

The political analysts believe the BJP may face a backlash if Eknath Shinde is ignored or if he continues to remain angry. The saffron party cannot risk the anger of 25% of voters.

Maharashtra In A Fix!

On the other hand, some others believe, a consolidation of non-Marathas may take place in the local body elections, as it happened in the recently-concluded assembly elections.

The saffron party is in a fix, so is the politics of Maharashtra. It is not yet clear how the Marathas and the non-Marathas will react if Eknath Shinde is sidelined and Devendra Fadnavis is made the Chief Minister of the state again.

It is also not clear how the BJP will be able to assuage the feelings of the acting Chief Minister. If the saffron party fails to appease the man, who was the face of the Mahayuti, how will the masses react and how will it impact the forthcoming local body elections?

HISTORY

Written By

Pramode Mallik


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