With the killing of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah, the Middle East has reached a dangerous flashpoint with unpredicted consequences. The militant outfit that was engaged in sporadic and inconsistent skirmishes and exchange of missiles with the Jewish state has found itself in an existential crisis. Will it hit back at Tel Aviv with vengeance taking Iranian help and wreaking havoc in Israel with a barrage of missile and drone attacks or go back to its shell and save whatever hardware, infrastructure and cadre it has been left with?
Hezbollah: No Ordinary Militia
Branded as a terrorist organisation by the US, the UK and some others, Hezbollah is not an ordinary militia. It is a political party, it has representatives in the Lebanese Parliament, it is a part of the government in Lebanon and it has a huge support base in the society.
Hezbollah held 12 seats before the 2018 Lebanese general election, and its alliance won the election by gaining 70 out of 128 seats in the Parliament of Lebanon.
Hezbollah: ‘State Within A State’
Described as a “state within a state”, the Shiite militant outfit also has a radio and a satellite TV station, social services and massive military deployment with thousands of fighters deployed at Lebanon’s borders.
Besides its strong grip over Shiite society and support bases among rival Sunni sects, Hezbollah also enjoys support in Christian areas of Lebanon.
Does Hezbollah Want War With Israel?
The political analysts believe initially Hezbollah was not interested in a major confrontation with Tel Aviv apprehending a massive conflagration in the Middle East. It was also afraid of the destruction of its infrastructure and the assassination of its key leaders and cadre.
But contrary to its expectations, the IDF killed a number of the high-ranking leaders and many of the commanders of the militant outfit. With the assassination of its supreme leader and damage to its terror infrastructure in a big way, Hezbollah has been pushed to a corner with its back on the wall.
What Has Ayatollah Khamenei Said?
Though Hassan Nasrallah has not been named, in a statement on the official website of Iran, supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei condemned the killing of “the defenceless people of Lebanon”, and said that “it proved the short-sightedness and foolish policies of the leaders” of Israel.
In an attempt to keep the morale of the cadre at this juncture high, he said Israeli “criminals must know that they are far too small to cause any significant damage on the strongholds of Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
Pledging support to its puppet organisation, Tehran urged, “All the Resistance forces in the region support and stand alongside Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah Pledges To Continue Fight
Admitting that Hassan Nasrallah had been killed in the attack, Hezbollah pledged to continue with the fight. It also vowed to continue supporting “Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people”.
Israel Declines Ceasefire Proposals
Political observers believe a war in the Middle East is not inevitable, but its possibilities have increased after the assassination of Nasarallah. Earlier, a 12-nation group of countries, including some of Israel’s allies, put pressure on the Jewish state to accept a 21-day ceasefire so that conflict is contained and not allowed to spread. However, Israel declined it and vowed to finish Hezbollah.
Will Hezbollah Unleash Iranian Guided Missiles?
It is a matter of great concern for Tel Aviv that many Iranian missiles with varied ranges and capabilities, including long-range precision-guided missiles capable of hitting anywhere in Israel, are intact with the Shiite outfit.
Hezbollah and Tehran know well that if they unleash these missiles causing havoc to the Jewish state, Israel will certainly retaliate by targeting Iranian cities and more Hezbollah hideouts.
Will the US Back Israel?
It is also clear that the US will be nudged to back Israel under these circumstances. With the US Presidential Elections taking place on November 5, Democrat President Joe Biden will be forced to back Tel Aviv and Republican candidate Donald Trump will only be happy to support such a move.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, considered to be a liberal, aims to hold talks with the US and strike a deal so that the economic sanctions imposed by the US and the EU are waved and Tehran is allowed to join the international community. Political analysts believe he should not get engaged in any war with Washington though he may indulge in some anti-Israel rhetorics for public consumption.
In a nutshell, a Hezbollah-Iran full-fledged war is not imminent, but it cannot be ruled out.
