Since Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader Champai Soren declared to set up a new political party and join hands with “good friends”, the question reverberating the political establishment of the tribal-dominated state is : how effective the new outfit will be and who are his good friends? In other words, will the former Chief Minister of Jharkhand be helpful to the BJP in defeating Hemant Soren-led party?

Will ‘Tiger of Kolhan’ Roar?

Though Champai Soren is a seven-time MLA and he is also known as the ‘Tiger of Kolhan’, political analysts believe he does not enjoy the support of a very big mass base. But his significance in the state’s political set up lies in the fact that out of 17 Santhal-dominated assembly seats, people have elected 12 from the ruling JMM.

Champai is a Santhal tribesman and he can send strong signals to the members of this tribe. According to the 1991 census, the state has a population of over 20 million out of which 28% is tribal while 12% of the people belong to scheduled castes. Out of this, 30,28,000 are Santhals. Soren has already said that he was humiliated in the JMM, his programmes as the chief minister of the state were canceled without his knowledge. He can appeal the members of his community and tell them how he was humiliated.

How Many MLAs Do Support Champai Soren?

But, no Santhal MLA or any other leader of political significance of the party has openly come out in his favor. Though it was reported that five MLAs came to New Delhi along with Champai Soren, their names remain enigmatic. So, it is not yet clear how many MLAs are with the former chief minister of Jharkhand or how many can join him in near future.

Secondly, observers believe the BJP is in doldrum over taking the Santhal leader. Though it wants to use him in its fight against the JMM, it is not sure on the treatment it should give to him. As Champai has been a chief minister and his fight against the JMM began only after he was unseated, he would not compromise on anything less than this position.

Resistance Within BJP

But there are many CM-aspirants and former chief ministers in the BJP who oppose the move to induct Soren. Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda will certainly not like him to be in the party because they would be eclipsed if he joins. The bickering and resistance within the BJP on the issue of inducting Champai Soren became evident when no one from the party met him in Delhi though he kept waiting for four days.

Will Champai Soren Launch Party?

The BJP may want Soren to float his own party and join hands with it in the forthcoming election and be used as a spoilsport for Hemant Soren and his party. Jharkhand Assembly Election should he held in November or December. It is difficult to establish a political party and take it to masses in such a short span of time. The BJP has no MLA in the three districts of Kolhan.

The districts of East Singhbhum, West Singhbhum and Saraikela Kharsawan have 14 assembly seats and the BJP may need Soren’s help to win seats. But will Champai Soren be able to take his appeal to the ground zero? Will he be able to set up a cadre base in the area strong enough to challenge the JMM? Political observers say, he has very less chances to do it.

Will Hemant Win Champai Back?

Champai Soren is still in the JMM, Hemant Soren personally called him several times when he was in the national capital, but he remained incommunicado. His party may try to win Champai Soren back. Will he backtrack considering his incapability to win the election and become the next chief minister of the state? Much water has flown down the Subarnarekha river. Champai Soren has to cross a wide stream of adversity and political problems.