Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS Summit in Kazan – the meeting of the two powerful leaders has once again shifted the spotlight on India as tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. This was their second meeting this year as the two leaders had earlier met in Moscow for the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit in July 2024. Nearly a month later, PM Modi visited Ukraine – making it the first visit by an Indian leader to the worn-torn nation since its 1991 independence.

Back then, both these meetings had raised high hopes that New Delhi might act as a potential mediator to end the ongoing military conflict between the two countries. Now, the red carpet welcome given to PM Modi after he arrived in Russia and the bonhomie seen between the two leaders has re-ignited the debate: Can India, an all-weather friend of Russia and an emerging partner to the West, really broker peace in the ongoing war?

India’s Diplomatic Tightrope

Non-alignment and strategic autonomy has always been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy and the Russia-Ukraine War presents a significant challenge to this stance. Historically, India shares deep and time-tested ties with Russia, dating back to the Cold War, when Moscow was a key ally and arms supplier to New Delhi. Even today, Russia remains a top supplier of military equipment to India, although India’s dependency on Russian defence imports has significantly reduced in recent years.

Recently, India has steadily built strong relations with the West, especially the United States, through various initiatives and economic partnerships. However, this balancing act becomes even more intricate as both Russia and Ukraine look towards New Delhi for diplomatic support.

It may be recalled that PM Modi, during his interactions with global leaders, had then reiterated the importance of diplomacy and dialogue. “This is not an era of war,” he had famously told Putin. But the big question here is – can such rhetoric translate into real action? The ground reality is that New Delhi’s ability to mediate between Russia and Ukraine is limited by its own geopolitical compulsions.

India’s Role In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite extreme international pressure, New Delhi has carefully avoided taking a tough stance against Russia in the ongoing conflict, refraining from directly condemning or cutting trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow. This has allowed India to maintain its crucial oil imports from Russia, which now accounts for about 40% of its crude oil supply – a shift that occurred after Western sanctions crippled Moscow’s trade. India’s import of cheaper oil from Russia has drawn a sharp response from Ukraine and its Western allies, who accuse India of indirectly funding Russia’s war-mongering.

India’s growing ties with Ukraine are also evident, highlighted by multiple meetings between PM Modi and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine has requested India to mediate in the peace process, reflecting its recognition of India’s growing stature on the global stage. Nonetheless, any attempt by India to mediate also risks upsetting Russia, which views India as a close strategic ally.

Challenges In Mediation

There are huge challenges before New Delhi if it tries to act as a peace broker to end the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, India’s longstanding ties with Russia complicate its ability to be seen as an impartial mediator. Any move seen as aligning with one side risks souring India’s relationships with the other, putting its own strategic interests at risk.

Furthermore, the influence of external powers like the US, China, and Europe makes any mediation attempt more difficult. The US, which has maintained a “strategic partnership” with India, has expressed concerns over New Delhi’s continuing relations with Moscow. The West’s primary goal in the conflict is Russia’s strategic defeat, whereas India’s position is one of neutrality, focusing on diplomatic dialogue rather than punitive measures.

Options Before India

One potential avenue for India to strengthen its position as a peace broker is through humanitarian and reconstruction initiatives in Ukraine. India has already provided limited humanitarian assistance, but significantly expanding these efforts could strengthen its credibility as a neutral party interested in the well-being of the Ukrainian people.

Another option is for India to continue engaging with both Russia and Ukraine diplomatically while offering its services for dialogue without taking sides. This approach would allow India to maintain its strategic autonomy while contributing to peace efforts.

But, India must tread cautiously, especially in the wake of reports suggesting that Indian ammunition, routed through third-party countries, is being used by Ukrainian forces, which have created discomfort in Moscow. Although India has categorically denied any direct involvement in supplying arms to Ukraine, such incidents, if repeated, could damage ties with Russia further. Managing this complicated situation without alienating either party will be key to India’s long-term foreign policy.

While India’s position as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is both desirable and complicated, its ability to bring about peace remains uncertain. The geopolitical complexities, along with India’s own strategic interests, limit its effectiveness as a broker. Nevertheless, India’s emphasis on diplomacy and dialogue continues to offer hope for de-escalation. In the end, the success of any mediation effort will depend on the willingness of Russia and Ukraine to negotiate in good faith, along with the support of their respective allies.