Have the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress joined hands to snatch the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) an opportunity to get a majority and form a government after the elections? The way the Tejaswi Yadav-controlled party adopted an uncompromising stance on seat-sharing for the Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2024 and refused to budge from its declared position indicates that the party has a design behind the scenes.

Seat-Sharing Formula

The party that could win only one seat in the Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2019 has decided to field its candidates for as many as 18 seats. The RJD revolted after it demanded 12 seats but was allotted 9, just three short of the number it demanded.

According to the seat-sharing formula, out of 90 seats, the JMM was allotted 41 seats, the Congress 29 seats, the RJD 9, and the CPI(ML) 2.

If media reports are to be believed, earlier, it was decided that the JMM would be given 50 seats and adjust the left parties, while the Congress would get 31 seats and the remaining would go to the CPI(ML).

Congress To Adjust RJD

It was believed that the JMM would give the left party two seats and would field its candidates on the remaining seats of its quota. Similarly, the Congress was supposed to adjust the RJD in its quota.

However, things changed drastically while the actual seat distribution took place. The RJD made it clear that it would not accept less than 12 seats. The party thinks that it has strong bases in many places particularly those having a good number of SC population. However, the JMM argues it has won only one seat.

Congress Releases First List

The things became clear on Tuesday when the Congress issued its first list of 21 candidates for the Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2024. The list of the candidates was finalised at a meeting attended by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Sonia Gandhi.

RJD’s Revolt

The grand old party cannot accept the RJD’s demand of allotting it 12 seats. RJD leader Manoj Jha set the alarm bell ringing when he declared that the party would field candidates at not less than 18 seats. Though he also said that the party would oppose the BJP after the election and won’t allow it to form a government, the moot question is: if it contests seats more than allotted, whom will it damage? Will it eat into the secular and liberal parties like the JMM or the pro-Hindutva party the BJP?

Will RJD Eat Into Congress Votes?

Political analysts believe the RJD will cut into the votes of secular parties like the Congress it if fields candidates at the seats, not allotted to it. This may help the BJP, particularly in those seats where it may be caught in neck-and-neck fights.

Political observers believe as the RJD has nothing to lose in Jharkhand, it may put the main stakeholder the JMM under pressure to surrender more seats, reducing its chances of getting a majority of its own. If it fails to squeeze the Hemant Soren-led party to the maximum, it may field candidates.

RJD Strategy

This will help the RJD in two ways- it can allow its grassroots workers to contest or work for their candidates and it can put the JMM under pressure at the time of bargain. If the JMM wins to get a majority of its own, it will be forced to form a coalition government and share the spoils with parties like the RJD and the Congress.

Though the ruling JMM faces anti-incumbency dissent and internal bickering after the former Chief Minister Champai Soren quit, it may also get voters’ sympathy as Hemant Soren languished in jail for months. After the Chief Minister was released on bail, he claims, and rightly so that he is innocent and is a victim of political vendetta. This may help the JMM, but it is not certain how much it helps.

Political observers believe the JMM is on a tightrope walk. It faces the rebellion of the RJD as well as its leaders. It faces anti-incumbency that may rob it of a majority. There seems to be a design to stop it from getting the reins of the state.