Will a beleaguered Pakistan, deep in economic morass and fighting crisis at many fronts take a break from its traditional practice of disrupting elections in Jammu and Kashmir? Or, will it stick to its policy of “giving India a thousand cuts to bleed it”, as stated under Operation Tupac under Zia-ul-Haque? Much before the elections in Jammu and Kashmir were announced, Islamabad made its intention clear when militants attacked a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to the Vaishno Devi shrine, near Reasi in June. The attack was so well-planned and executed that the militant hit the driver when the bus was crossing a bridge, the driver lost balance, the bus fell into a deep gorge, nine persons including the driver and the conductor were killed and 33 others were injured. The militants kept on raining the bullets on the bus.

ISI Strikes

But it was just the beginning of a new strategy of Pakistan-based militants who shifted their geographical area of operation from the Kashmir Valley to the Jammu region. Two days after the incident that occurred on June 9, 2024, a gun battle took place in a village near Kathua, where two militants and a Central Reserve Police Force officer were killed. A day after this incident, seven security personnel were seriously injured in two separate encounters taking place in Gondoh and Chattergala.

Terrorists Try To Infiltrate Before Polls

In the latest development, the Indian Army foiled the infiltration bid by Pakistan-trained terrorists on the India-Pakistan border in Rajouri district of Jammu and Kashmir on Monday, September 9, 2024. Two terrorists were gunned down and the rest were pushed back. The Indian Army also recovered a cache of arms and ammunition seized, including AK-47 rifles.

Will TRF Continue With Hoodwinking Int’l Community?

Security experts believe these attacks were carried out by The Resistance Force, a militant organization established by the ISI taking terrorists from Lashkar-e-Toiba and other outfits in the aftermath of abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. The TRF was set up to hoodwink the international community by making it look like an indigenous outfit fighting for a separate state. The name was designed in such a way that it does not look like an outfit related to Islamist elements, again to fool the West.

The TRF adopted the strategy of targeting Hindu pilgrims, crowded areas, military bases and selected individuals to create panic among the masses, destabilise the state and demoralize the security forces.

The Pakistan-backed terror outfit also got much more sophisticated weapons like US-made M4 assault rifles, Chinese weapons and encrypted radio sets. These weapons were supplied by the NATO and the US to the Afghanistan and fell into the hands of the Taliban after they captured the power in 2021. From the Taliban, these were smuggled to Pakistan and were ultimately handed to the TRF.

ISI Swings Into Action

The defence experts believe, that after the Supreme Court ordered the Election Commission of India to complete the state assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024, the ISI swung into action, brought forward the TRF, and shifted its base to Jammu and changed strategy. The experts believe, that as time passes, the TRF will try to strike more targets in the Jammu region while the ISI may hand over the Kashmir Valley to other terror outfits.

Besides, experts claim that Pakistan has sent around 80 terrorists to India solely with the aim of creating disturbance to the election process, carrying out strikes before and during the elections and targeting political parties and their leaders and cadres.

900 Companies Deployed In Jammu-Kashmir

If media reports are to be believed, the Indian Army has deployed 3,000 troops, including 500 para commandos, the Border Security Force has moved 2,000 personnel to the international border, and Assam Rifles has sent 2,000 to Jammu and Kashmir.

The BSF has increased its surveillance along the 744-km long Line of Control and the 198-km international border. It has been equipped with drones, night-vision goggles and other kits. It has also launched an anti-tunneling drive to detect and destroy trans-border tunnels.

The Jammu and Kashmir administration has retained 450 companies of paramilitary troops earlier sent by the union government for the Amarnath Yatra. Besides, it also sent an additional 450 companies for election.

Thus, at present there are 900 companies of central paramilitary forces, each company containing 110 personnel. Besides, the state also has Jammu and Kashmir Police and Rashtriya Rifles.

TRF May Target These Areas

According to defense experts, the intelligence agencies have informed the administration and the security forces that the TRF and other terror groups may create mayhem in Reasi, Doda, Kishtwar, Bhaderwah, Kathua, Samba, Udhampur,  Ramban, Rajouri, and Poonch districts before and during elections.

Besides, hundreds of Village Defence Guards (VDG) have been trained, equipped and sent to their respective villages. They have been given Self Loading Rifles and semi-automatic guns. Still, they will be in trouble fighting the terrorists wielding US-made M4 assault rifles and AK-47 machine guns.

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Election 2024 will certainly be different from earlier polls as these will be held after a gap of 10 years and for the first time after the abrogation of Article 370. It will be a litmus test for the Indian democracy, people of the union territories will get an opportunity to express their views and pent-up anger if any. The configuration and character of the new government will decide not only the future of the restive regions but also how mature the Indian democracy has become. And, these are the reasons for Pakistan to try its best to derail the elections.