As Bihar is heading towards state assembly elections in 2025, will the BJP adopt the Maharashtra model? Will the bigger partner in the Bihar NDA push Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to a corner and make him eat the humble pie by sidelining him and declaring its own leader as the face for fighting the polls?

The confusion started after Union Home Minister Amit Shah had declared that the party would sit and decide when asked if NDA could go to polls in Bihar without declaring a Chief Minister candidate as it did in Maharashtra.

He said, “We will sit together and decide. We will let you know after we have made a decision.”

What Is Maharashtra Model?

His cryptic response has led to speculations that the BJP may not bank on Nitish Kumar’s face in Bihar Assembly Elections 2025.

The saffron party fought the Maharashtra Assembly Elections this year bringing forward Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, sending the message that he might continue as the Chief Minister. However, after the BJP won 132 seats in the 288-member House, it sidelined Shinde.

Though Shiv Sena lobbied for a long time, its MLAs threatened to revolt against the bigger party and Shinde expressed his anger by going to his native village in Satara district when the negotiations for the government formation were at their peak, the BJP refused to relent. It declared in the most unambiguous terms that Devendra Fadnavis would be the Chief Minister of the state.

Eknath Shinde ultimately surrendered, he became the Deputy Chief Minister and handed over the reins of the government to Fadnavis.

Will BJP Dump Nitish Kumar?

Political analysts believe Amit Shah has indicated such a possibility in Bihar too in 2025. While the BJP won 74 seats, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was restricted to 43 in the 243-member Bihar Assembly in 2020.

Though the RJD of the opposition alliance Mahagathbandhan won the maximum number of 75 seats, the NDA managed to garner 125 seats and formed the government.

The saffron party reposed faith on Nitish Kumar, who took oath as the Chief Minister of the state. However, his wings were clipped considerably and two deputy CMs, both from the BJP, also joined the government.

However, Bihar Chief Minister dumped the BJP in August 2022, accusing it of trying to finish off the JD(U). He joined hands with arch-rival RJD to save his government and continued to the CM of the state.

The alliance did not last long and the leader who has been ridiculed as being the “Paltu Ram” once again changed his stance once again. He quit the Mahagathbandhan alliance and returned to the NDA in January 2024.

Will Nitish Kumar Change Side Again?

After Amit Shah’s cryptic message, it became clear that the saffron party is planning to dump the JD(U) leader. Though Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Samrat Choudhary swung into damage control by clarifying that there is no confusion, the fact remains that a confusion has indeed been created.

Samrat Chaudhary asserted that the ruling alliance of NDA is working under the leadership of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar and we will continue to contest elections under the leadership of both leaders.

Political analysts wonder if Nitish Kumar once again change sides and overturn the political applecart of the BJP, if he comes under pressure. They argue, the RJD and its politics of marginalised and downtrodden suit the JD(U).

Importance Of Being Nitish Kumar

Secondly, the Nitish Kumar-led party has a support base among the Muslimes, that has eroded for being with the saffron party for years.

Considering the Waqf Amendment Bill and the polarisation that the BJP makes during the election campaign, the JD(U) may find it uncomfortable to continue with the alliance.

When the One Nation One Election Bill is debated in the Parliament, the Nitish Kumar-led party may find it difficult to defend the same. Earlier, the CM himself accused the saffron party of trying to finish the JD(U). The party may come under pressure and be further marginalised.

However, Nitish Kumar has made a constituency of his own by giving bicycles to girls, offering them scholarships, banning the sale of liquor, and developing infrastructure like roads and electricity. The BJP may not take the risk of sidelining and thus pushing him to the opposition alliance.