The fate of 50 assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir has been sealed in the EVMs. The third round of voting is set to take place for 40 seats, with 26 in the Jammu region and 14 in the Kashmir region. On October 1, the people of Jammu and Kashmir will decide who will govern the state. The entire country is analyzing the results of the first two phases of voting to see who has gained the upper hand and whose hopes have been dashed. Diplomats from 16 countries have also come to witness this new dawn of democracy in Jammu and Kashmir. This is perhaps the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir where terms like strikes or boycotts are not being heard. Even hardliners are trying to join the mainstream through the ballot. The voices that used to talk about Pakistan have been pushed to the sidelines in Kashmir.

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A Complex Battle in Kashmir:

In Kashmir, discussions revolve solely around the ballot, not bullets. A few weeks ago, in our program “Engineering of Votes in Kashmir,” we highlighted how the battle in Jammu is between the BJP and Congress, but in Kashmir, the situation is far more complex. Strange tactics are being used to either secure or divide the votes. On one side is Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, on the other side is Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP. Additionally, there is the hardliner Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittihad Party and independent candidates backed by Jamaat-e-Islami. Both Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti have accused Engineer Rashid of being Team B of the BJP.

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Whom Does Engineer Rashid’s Entry Benefit?

The question now arises: is the voting arithmetic still working in Jammu and Kashmir, or has the chemistry changed to create new equations? What happens if the separatists don’t win and make it to the assembly? What kind of efforts will we see in the coming days to form a government in Jammu and Kashmir? Could Mehbooba Mufti emerge as a kingmaker after the elections? How will Prime Minister Modi’s mission in Kashmir move forward after the election results? These are the questions we are trying to answer.

Everyone Has High Hopes from the Election:

The assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is approaching its final stage. Before the third round of voting, political heavyweights have gone all out to secure an advantage. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been fiercely attacking his political opponents. He has accused Congress, the National Conference, and PDP of turning Jammu and Kashmir into a warehouse of terrorism. In another rally, he said that once the BJP forms the government, PoK will become a part of India. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has promised that the INDIA alliance will push for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood in Parliament after the election. Farooq Abdullah of the National Conference has also vowed to fight for the restoration of statehood and Article 370. Meanwhile, Home Minister Amit Shah countered by saying that Rahul Gandhi’s three generations lack the strength to restore Article 370. As Jammu and Kashmir holds its first assembly election in a decade, everyone sees hope, but the road to power is not a cakewalk for anyone. Let’s take a closer look at how the different parties are trying to sway the public in their favor in the third round of voting.

What Are BJP’s Expectations?

Out of the 40 seats up for grabs on October 1, 26 are in the Jammu region, where the BJP has high hopes. On most of these seats, it’s a direct fight between the BJP and Congress. The issues in Jammu are quite different from those in Kashmir. While the restoration of Article 370 and statehood are major concerns in Kashmir, development, smart electricity meters, property tax, and toll tax are the key issues in Jammu. Unlike in other Hindi-speaking regions, where caste plays a significant role, in Jammu, Hindutva and nationalism are the driving forces. This may be why parties like the National Conference and PDP have never gained a strong foothold here. Of the 24 seats in Jammu where voting will take place in this round, the BJP won 17 in 2014. However, Congress has gained ground here, as evidenced by the increase in its vote share during this year’s Lok Sabha elections. Although delimitation has tilted the balance slightly in favor of Jammu, the BJP is still facing both opportunities and challenges in this region.

A Shift in People’s Perspective:

Political analysts and journalists often enjoy predicting election outcomes based on past data, but there is a significant difference in Jammu and Kashmir before and after August 5, 2019. Therefore, any predictions based on the 2014 or earlier data should be taken with caution. There has been a noticeable shift in how people perceive various issues in Jammu and Kashmir. After ten years, assembly elections are finally being held, and both the people and political leaders have high hopes. But what is the “vote engineering” in Kashmir indicating? What can we infer from the voter turnout in the first two phases, and how do these results compare with previous election trends?

What Are the Equations in Kashmir?

Everyone is still trying to figure out the equations in Kashmir. The fate of most political heavyweights in Jammu and Kashmir has already been sealed in the EVMs, including former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who is contesting from two seats: Ganderbal and Budgam. The fate of Jammu and Kashmir Congress Committee President Tariq Hameed Karra and BJP’s Ravinder Raina is also locked in the EVMs. Meanwhile, high-profile surgeon Ahmad Wagay, also known as Barkati, is contesting from the Beerwah seat. We will know on October 8 whether the people of Kashmir have accepted or rejected him. However, the real twist in the Kashmir electoral battle came with the entry of Engineer Rashid. His presence has led to questions about the kind of equation that might emerge in Kashmir.

PDP Riding High on Hopes:

Some political pundits believe that Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah have successfully convinced the people of the valley that Engineer Rashid is a B team of the BJP. Throughout their campaign, the National Conference has consistently pointed out that the BJP has not fielded candidates on 28 seats in Kashmir, effectively giving someone a walkover. They have also emphasized the restoration of statehood and Article 370. This seems to have swayed the valley’s voters toward more established parties rather than smaller parties, hardliners, or independent candidates supported by Jamaat-e-Islami. Nevertheless, there are indications that smaller parties and independents could still emerge as a power group in the valley. Meanwhile, the PDP remains optimistic. The National Conference seems to have the upper hand in the first two rounds, while the Congress sees the Jammu region as a favorable battleground in the third round. The BJP is hopeful of a clean sweep in Jammu, but there’s concern about what will happen if the separatists or hardliners don’t win. Could they pose a future threat to Jammu and Kashmir?

Four Possible Scenarios:

Jammu and Kashmir is a region bordered by Pakistan to the west and China to the east, making it difficult for any elected government to function without the support of the central government. As a result, four possible scenarios could emerge after the October 8 results. One, the BJP could win an outright majority. Two, the National Conference and Congress alliance could secure a majority. Three, no party wins enough seats to form a government. In that case, the BJP could try to form a coalition with smaller parties and independents in Kashmir. If this doesn’t work, the National Conference and Congress could attempt to form a government by bringing the PDP into their alliance.

The Final Decision Lies with the People:

Lastly, anything is possible in power politics, and an unexpected alliance could emerge—one that the people of Jammu and Kashmir may not have even considered. However, whoever forms the government will have to work closely with the Lieutenant Governor and the central government. Prime Minister Modi would want his mission of development in Jammu and Kashmir to continue without roadblocks, but in a democracy, the final decision lies with the people. The people of Jammu and Kashmir are carefully considering how to use their vote. Not only India but the whole world is watching to see which direction the people of Jammu and Kashmir will take in electing their next government. Will political parties’ “vote engineering” work, or will the recent changes surprise everyone with new electoral chemistry?

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