It’s May 13, and the forecast of the advancement of the monsoon has begun across the country. There is little surprise, as the Indian subcontinent is expected to witness an early onset of the Southwest Monsoon in 2025. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the monsoon is likely to set over Kerala ahead of its normal date. Notably, the Southwest Monsoon has begun advancing towards Indian mainland, with conditions becoming favourable in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andaman Sea and some parts of South Bay of Bengal. Andaman & Nicobar Islands is going to experience heavy rainfall on Tuesday. Moreover, rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms and lightning will continue over West, Central and South Peninsular India during next 5 days.
Rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds will lash Kerala, Mahe, Karnataka until May 14. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Rayalaseema during 14th-16th; Telangana on 13th and 16th; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 16th.
When Will Monsoon Hit Kerala?
The IMD in its recent update announced that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 27, with a model error of 4 days on both sides. Notably, the advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala. Earlier, the normal onset date for the southwest monsoon was predicted to be June 1. If we look at the data of past five years, there were two occasions when monsoon had begun early – 2022 and 2024. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was May 29 and May 30 respectively, as per the IMD data.
In 2024, the southwest monsoon rains in India reached a four-year high, recording about 108 per cent of the long-period average at 934.8 mm, data made available by the state-run weather bureau showed. The long-period average in India is 868.6 mm.
Earlier, the IMD had issued long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025. The notification dated April 15, stated that the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). This indicates that the country is expected to receive “above-normal” rainfall, meaning more rain than usual. Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra in conversation with ANI, also stated that monsoon rains will be more than the normal range.
While it will be more than the normal in almost all states of India, some states will experience below-normal rainfall. The list where it will be below-normal includes north-eastern states, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, some areas in Bihar and Ladakh. Mohapatra highlighted that the information about the arrival of monsoon on Kerala tip will be given on May 15. . The IMD forecast stated: “Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.”
Also Read: Monsoon Forecast 2025: Above-Normal Rainfall Expected With Neutral El Nino; THESE States Likely To Receive Less Rainfall
