If you go by the enthusiastic crowds film actor turned politician is drawing across the poll-bound Tamil Nadu, it is nothing but electric. In a film-crazed state where film personalities dominated the political space, it was only to be expected – if a young and popular superstar with a carefully crafted image like Vijay entered politics, he was bound to become a phenomenon.
All the paraphernalia of a politician already surrounds Vijay as he stepped out to launch his second leg of campaigning – for the assembly polls due next year – from Nagercoil on Saturday and was all guns blazing against the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK supremo MK Stalin questioning if his frequent foreign trips were to “invest his family Money abroad or to bring investments into Tamil Nadu.”
His die-hard fans, who comprise most of the huge gatherings that he collects all along the routes Vijay traverses, roar their greetings and hail all that he says. Quite visibly, these crowds sure may indicate a notion that Actor Vijay will be a super, duper hit in his present real-life role of a politician. As will be his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
But, political analysts who try to decode the Vijay phenomenon would like to be a tad more cautious and circumspect when they make their assessment of his chances, or of his ability to damage the DMK or the AIADMK (NDA) more.
News24 caught up with Dr Sumanth C Raman, the state’s foremost political analyst and commentator, for a quick appraisal and impact of his arrival in the political theatre in Tamil Nadu. “Sure, Vijay will cut into some of the secular DMK vote of Christians and Muslims, estimated to be around 16 to 17 percent unofficially, but the DMK can afford this easily,” he says reasoning that “DMK has a comfortable lead of 6 per cent against AIADMK plus allies, and only a bigger dent into its vote bank can damage its chances.”
But Stalin knows, as also everyone else, that Vijay will be eating into AIADMK, that i,s the NDA vote share also because he is “splitting the anti-DMK vote.”
To this extent, even Vijay’s presence would be a plus factor for DMK, and as of now, the ruling DMK is not unduly perturbed. But yes, Stalin does dismiss Vijay as a person with no ideology or no conviction with little or no track record of public service.
Picking on this theme, Prof Ramu Manivannan of the Madras University, said that the days of film actors entering the political fray and becoming super successful were over, even in Tamil Nadu. But without dismissing the Vijay factor in any way, he says that “Vijay is a crowd puller, but does not seem to be carrying any vision or mission and does not even exhibit the political maturity that comes with forming a party and leading it.”
In the past, Tamil Nadu has seen leaders like MG Ramachandran, M Karunanidhi, J Jayalalithaa, who toiled hard for years before becoming the political leaders that they became.
Even a mega star like Rajinikanth, who had everything going for him, his own stardom, support from where it matters, and an army of well-wishers from all walks of life, eventually cried off after forming a political party. Perhaps he realised that it was best he stuck to his core competency of ruling the film world.
“Vijay says that he is ideologically opposed to the BJP, and also says he is politically opposed to DMK. But he does not have it in him to be the alternative to both,” Prof Manivannan said.
But what he will end up doing is to fragment the opposition vote, as he is pitting himself against the DMK and asking those who do not want to vote for DMK to vote for him. “This will surely split the anti-DMK vote, and the DMK would say thank you to him,” Prof Manivannan felt.
There is surely anti-incumbency on the ground, and in such a situation, splitting of votes against it is something the DMK will be happy about, but would be worried that this factor does not reach an alarming situation for itself, and Vijay walks away with the entire minority votes.
The BJP, which has tied up with AIADMK plus other minor allies, is still far behind the UPA led by DMK in Tamil Nadu. If the anti-incumbency factor is negated by the presence of a bigger, more attractive, and aggressive vote splitter like Actor Vijay, it is exactly what the doctor ordered for the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu.
Clearly, it is playing up on Tamil pride, Hindi imposition, NEET, fiscal federalism, and a host of pro-Tamil issues, and has been painting the centre and the BJP as the principal villains; the AIADMK seems to be under pressure to counter these insinuations. It was these kinds of issues that helped DMK hammer the NDA combine and win all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu with a comfortable 10 percent vote lead.
In the previous assembly elections too, DMK notched up a huge lead over AIADMK that ended with some 20 percent vote share. Other than an element of anti-incumbency, the issues at play remain the same, and after ruling the state for four years, the DMK has its own propaganda machine out in full force.
A solid player on the propaganda and perception game, with its own media support unlike the political parties in different states, the DMK is able to mount effective campaigns.
But it sure is early days, and 8 months is an eternity in politics.
However, for the present, the DMK appears equipped for the new challenge from the X factor — Actor Vijay and his TVK.
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