After taking control of the Senate, the Republican Party is gearing up to capture the White House. The Grand Old Party is making preparations in Florida so that the potential president-elect Donald Trump could address the massive crowd of supporters, enthusiasts, and voters who are brimming with confidence.

When this article is being written, the former US President has gained lead in states that count for 246 electoral- college votes while his rival Kamala Harris is trailing with the potential lead in states with 187 electoral college votes. She has canceled her election night party. This tells a lot.

Indo-US Relationship

How will it impact the Indo-US relationships that have been getting consolidated over the years beginning with the Civil Nuclear Deal between the two countries in 2004, when Democrat George Bush was the US President while Manmohan Singh of Congress was the Prime Minister of India, being supported by the left parties from outside? The left parties pulled out the plug, endangering the government, which survived the no-confidence motion mysteriously.

New Delhi never looked back, nor did the US, despite the change of ruling parties in the two countries.

The BJP was voted to power in India in 2014 and Republican Donald Trump won the US Presidential Election in 2016.

He lost the next election held in 2020 to Democrat Joe Biden. The Indo-US ties were strengthened from one point to another, from one segment to another.

US-India Bilateral Ties Improve

Business and trade, investment, FDI, investment in the Indian capital market, geo-political relations, brief India- Chia scuffle, and multilateral agencies like the Quad or the Quadrilateral Dialogue, there was no area where a better Indo-US relationship did not put its stamp.

Donald Trump Creates Hurdles

However, there were hiccups in the relationship as well. Despite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s infamous statement of “Abki baar, Trump Sarkar” (“This time Trump administration”) in the “Howdy Modi” programme in 2020, his good friend is not that kind to India.

Upset with the widening trade gap in favour of India, the Donald Trump administration cracked the whip. It first refused to grant the Most Favoured Nation status to India and then stopped the preferential trade treatment being given to the country.

Trump Punishes Indian Business

Many new items were added to the negative list (the list containing items that cannot be imported). Worse, the Donald Trump administration slapped fresh tariffs on many Indian imports, making them almost impossible to be commercially viable in the US.

When the Narendra Modi government invited Donald Trump in February 2020, his guest announced on its soil that he would put punitive tariffs and other restrictions on India if it did not allow more access to the US trade. It did not happen as he lost the Presidential Election in 2020.

Will Trump Further Push India?

Donald Trump is likely to be back in the White House. Will he complete his unfinished job? This is more important also because if he wins, it will be on the slogans of ‘Make America Great Again’ and ‘America First’. He has promised to punish those countries that export to the US and strengthen the domestic industries and businesses with increased protectionism.

Though protectionism and increased tariffs resulted in the U.S. steel industry losing 75,000 jobs, and Michigan’s auto industry shedding 4,000 jobs by 2019 under his regime, Donald Trump will be under the pressure of a strong lobby of business houses that rake in the moolah. He is most likely to succumb to the pressure and yield.

Fewer H1B Visas, Fewer Remittances

As the former US President raked up the issue of immigration, and declared that they would invade the country if Kamala Harris got elected, who he accused of allowing hundreds of thousands of foreigners to sneak into the US illegally, he would have to fulfill the promise.

Donald Trump, if elected, may cut the number of H1B visas, arguing that it may create more opportunities to US citizens, oblivious to the fact that it may prove to be counter-productive by increasing the input cost of the US IT companies, making them unviable commercially.

This populist step may hit India hard. Less number of H1B visas mean less number of Indian professionals and it may result less remittances. This may cut the foreign currency income for India as the persons of the Indian diaspora living in the US sent $125 billion to the country of their origin in 2023-24. The remittances further increased from $87 billion in 2020-21 to $89 billion in 21-22 and $110 billion in 2022-23.

Geopolitical Interests

However, there is a bipartisan approach in the US establishment toward India in the areas of defence cooperation and geopolitical and strategic significance. India will continue to checkmate China in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region in favour of the US.

Be it Quad or the issue of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Washington will need the active support of New Delhi, which has emerged as the most trusted ally of the US. It is most likely that Washington supports India in its dispute with Beijing, which may further push New Delhi under its umbrella.

The new regime of Donald Trump may have an impact on the world and India will be one of the most affected countries.