With high-pitch campaigns in five states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh going on for assembly polls, which are scheduled from November 7 to November 30, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been hitting the ground with a promise to conduct caste survey and provide socio-economic and political opportunities to people according to their population.

This has not only brought to the fore the electoral agenda of Congress but also an opportunity for other parties to talk more about equitable and proportional social, political, and economic participation of people belonging to different caste groups.

The upcoming elections in the five states have very high stakes for the ruling BJP and main opposition Congress, as in at least three of them they are in direct contest where the results will have ramifications and bearing on the next year’s Lok Sabha elections.

Political analysts are of the opinion that Congress’ victory in Karnataka in the last assembly elections has emboldened the entire opposition brigade, which led them to form a formidable united front- I.N.D.I.A – against the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

It is also believed that these elections would act as a sort of referendum on issues such as caste-based census, reservations, and various quota-based formulas for jobs, education, and elected bodies, including the Women’s Reservation Bill.

PM Modi’s credibility is at stake as party insiders feel that the BJP has consciously cut to size its regional satraps like Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh.

After Bihar conducted a successful caste survey, the focus of the present political discourse shifted in favour of consolidation of the OBCs and these elections are going to determine whether this could reduce the influence of Hindutva politics, which the BJP is trying to fan through announcing the date of ‘pran pratishtha’ at Ram Temple in Ayodhya and bring in an external issue – Israel-Hamas conflict – into the fray.

The Congress Working Committee met on October 10 and later announced that if elected to power, it would conduct a caste census and remove the 50 percent ceiling for reservations for the Schedule Castes, the Scheduled Tribes, and the OBCs.

However, it is to be seen whether the OBC gamble will pay off for Congress and the opposition in these elections, as BJP may target the I.N.D.I.A block by resorting to the Rohini Commission, which suggests sub-categorisation of the OBCs.

The BJP is expected to target non-dominant OBC castes, which may be smaller in number individually but collectively represent a significant portion compared to the dominant OBC castes like the Yadavs.