Patna: The Mahagathbandhan’s attempt to return to power in Bihar has failed to gain momentum as early trends show the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) heading toward a sweeping victory. With the NDA leading on more than 203 seats, several structural weaknesses within the Opposition alliance have become evident.
Here’s some major factor that leads failure of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar polls:
RJD’s Reliance on Traditional MY Vote Base Not Enough
RJD entered the 2025 elections relying heavily on its traditional Muslim–Yadav (MY) vote base, which makes up around 30% of Bihar’s population. However, this formula fell short in a competitive, multi-cornered contest.
Key limitations of RJD’s caste strategy:
- Tejashwi Yadav failed to attract EBCs, Dalits and young voters.
- Increasing shift of these groups toward JD(U)-BJP over the past decade.
- The 2023 caste survey failed to create wider support.
- The party remained restricted to an old formula crafted in the 1990s.
While the MY combination once powered RJD to successive wins, it failed to expand in 2025.
Legacy of ‘Jungle Raj’ Continues to Hurt RJD
Despite Tejashwi Yadav’s efforts to project RJD as a governance-focused party, the long shadow of the 1990–2005 “Jungle Raj” era worked against the Mahagathbandhan.
Why the past continues to impact voting:
- Memories of high crime, kidnappings and caste violence.
- Cases like Bathani Tola and Laxmanpur Bathe still discussed.
- Criminal influence of leaders like Mohammad Shahabuddin.
- Frequent references to the killings of officials during that period.
Election violence comparison:
- 1985: 63 deaths, 156 booths re-polled
- 1990: 87 deaths
- 1995: Elections postponed repeatedly due to violence
- 2005: Repolling in 660 booths
- 2025: Zero violence, zero repolling
Nitish Kumar’s stable governance image overshadowed RJD’s promises.
Congress’s Declining Influence Weakened the Alliance
Congress continued its decline in Bihar, leading in only four seats by mid-day trends.
Its weakening organisational base, poor strike rate and inability to convert votes into seats once again labelled it the “drag factor” in the Mahagathbandhan.
‘Vote Theft’ Campaign Failed to Connect With Voters
Rahul Gandhi’s allegations of “vote chori” and voter list manipulation failed to influence voters.
Record Turnout In Favour For NDA
Bihar recorded a historic 67.13% turnout, the highest since 1951.
Women’s turnout crossed 71%, surpassing men and further strengthening the NDA, which has benefited from strong female support in recent elections.
