A quiet but intense power struggle is unfolding inside the Karnataka Congress government. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D. K. Shivakumar continue to show unity in public, but party insiders say both groups are preparing for a major clash. The friction is now beginning to influence decision-making within the government.
The Core of the Conflict
The root of the disagreement lies in a reported power-sharing deal made after the Congress victory in May 2023. According to this understanding, Siddaramaiah was expected to serve as chief minister for the first two-and-a-half years, after which the baton would be passed to Shivakumar.
As the government approaches this halfway point, tensions have grown. Siddaramaiah’s supporters insist he should complete the full five-year term. They believe he has already started strengthening his hold over the administration to prevent any attempt at forcing a leadership change.
Meanwhile, Shivakumar’s camp maintains that the original “rotation” arrangement should be honoured. His supporters are quietly building support among MLAs and party cadres to push for the transition.
Caste Dynamics and Political Support Bases
Caste politics play a major role in the ongoing tussle. Siddaramaiah commands strong loyalty from the Ahinda groups minorities, backward classes, and Dalits. This has long been the backbone of his political strength.
Shivakumar, on the other hand, draws power from the influential Vokkaliga community, which holds significant sway in many regions of Karnataka. His position as state Congress president also helps him stay in constant touch with party workers and district units.
Within the government, some Siddaramaiah loyalists are reportedly suggesting the creation of multiple deputy chief minister posts representing different communities. Such a move would naturally reduce Shivakumar’s influence and spread power across several leaders.
Shivakumar’s supporters believe that keeping him as KPCC chief is crucial, since the role ensures he remains visible, powerful, and deeply connected to the party’s organisational machinery.
Strengths of Each Camp – Who has how much power?
Siddaramaiah’s Advantages
- A strong mass following among Ahinda voters.
- Control over the government’s administrative machinery and several key ministries.
- Public backing from ministers who say he should remain chief minister until 2028.
- The ability to reshape his cabinet, which may sideline leaders aligned with Shivakumar.
Shivakumar’s Strengths
- Full organisational control as the president of the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC).
- The capacity to mobilise MLAs and energise party workers.
- Vokkaliga community support, giving him strong grassroots influence.
- Reputation as a major fundraiser, which adds to his political weight.
Can Siddaramaiah Hold His Position?
At present, Siddaramaiah appears to have the upper hand. His supporters are confident he will continue for the full term, and discussions are reportedly underway on a large-scale cabinet reshuffle that could reduce Shivakumar’s influence.
Shivakumar, however, is moving cautiously. He has publicly denied any plans to rebel and says both leaders will follow instructions from the party high command. But many believe that behind the scenes, his supporters are preparing for a strategic showdown.
Role of the High Command
The central leadership of the Congress party remains the biggest deciding factor. Siddaramaiah insists that any leadership change depends entirely on the party’s top leaders. Shivakumar’s loyalists are also appealing to Delhi to uphold the so-called “50-50” agreement.
Political observers say that the high command’s silence has allowed the tension to grow, creating uncertainty about the government’s stability.
What Lies Ahead?
Several questions now hang over Karnataka politics:
- Will Siddaramaiah stay on for all five years?
- Will Shivakumar openly demand the chief minister’s post or continue working quietly?
- Can the high command find a compromise, or will it be forced to choose sides?
For the Congress, this internal power struggle is more than a leadership issue it is a test of the party’s ability to balance caste equations, manage ambitions, and maintain unity. A wrong move by either camp could risk the stability of the government and shape the future of the party in the state.
