The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025. The notification dated April 15, states that the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). This indicates that the country is expected to receive “above-normal” rainfall, meaning more rain than usual. Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra in conversation with ANI, also stated that monsoon rains will be more than the normal range.
Key Takeaways From The Forecast:
Monsoon Onset Date:
While it will be more than the normal in almost all states of India, some states will experience below-normal rainfall. The list where it will be below-normal includes northeastern states, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, some areas in Bihar and Ladakh. Mohapatra highlighted that the information about the arrival of monsoon on Kerala tip will be given on May 15. . The IMD forecast stated: “Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.”
Neutral El Nino
According to the IMD forecast, Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region currently. Furthermore, forecast from the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate model indicate that the Neutral ENSO condition are likely to continue during the monsoon season. These conditions are favourable for onset of good monsoon season.
State-wise Distribution:
Most Indian states will likely see more-than-normal rainfall.
The IMD mentioned that according to the spatial distribution, above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country. However, areas over Northwest India, Northeast India and South Peninsular India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
Meanwhile, Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary Dr M. Ravichandran reiterated that most of the regions will cover above normal rainfall, some below average and some will experience excess as well. He also talked about heatwave, which he has predicted to be more compared to the last year especially during May.
“This year, the average rainfall during southwest monsoon is roughly around 105% of the normal range, around 91 cm in the mean. Most of the regions will cover above normal rainfall, some below average and some will experience excess as well… Heatwave will be more compared to the last year, especially during May and sometime in June in North India,” Ravichandran told ANI.
Furthermore, the IMD notified that it will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2025
What Monsoon Forecast Means For Farmers
Monsoon prediction/ forecast for Agriculture-based country, India is extremely important. Farmers across India are heavily dependent on rainfall and good monsoon season for a rich yield. The forecast helps farmer in understanding how the crop season will be, when to plant, what to plant and harvest. It further helps farmer to plan rain-fed crops like rice, pulses, and cotton. The long range forecast indicates overall positive outlook for agriculture, especially for the rain-fed crops. More rainfall implies that farmers will have access to groundwater resources for irrigation purposes which will be recharged by the rainwater.
