In the recent Lok Sabha election, the NDA won 292 seats out of 543, exceeding the majority mark by 20. However, the BJP, with 240 seats, did not achieve a majority on its own, a significant difference from its strong showings in 2014 and 2019. Upon reviewing the final vote counts and the party's performance in closely contested races, it appears that an extra 609,639 votes spread across 32 seats could have ensured a majority for the BJP.
In Chandigarh, the BJP lost by a narrow margin of 2,504 votes, and in Hamirpur, Uttar Pradesh, the gap was just 2,629 votes. Similar close defeats were observed in other constituencies such as Salempur, Uttar Pradesh (3,573 votes), Dhule, Maharashtra (3,831 votes), and Dhaurahra, Uttar Pradesh (4,449 votes). There were also seats where the margins were higher than those in Chandigarh and Dhule but were still quite narrow in the broader context, like South Goa (13,535 votes), Thirupathi, Andhra Pradesh (14,569 votes), and Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala (16,077 votes).
Among these narrow losses, the constituencies with the highest margins were Fatehpur, Uttar Pradesh (33,199 votes), and Kheri, Uttar Pradesh (34,329 votes). Looking ahead to future elections, these are seats where the BJP will likely focus on converting narrow defeats into victories.
S.NO
CONSTITUENCY
STATE
MARGIN
1
Chandigarh
Chandigarh
2,504
2
Hamirpur
Uttar Pradesh
2,629
3
Salempur
Uttar Pradesh
3,573
4
Dhule
Maharashtra
3,831
5
Dhaurahra
Uttar Pradesh
4,449
6
Daman & Diu
DNHDD
6,225
7
Arambagh
West Bengal
6,399
8
Beed
Maharashtra
6,553
9
South Goa
Goa
13,535
10
Thirupathi
Andhra Pradesh
14,569
11
Aonla
Uttar Pradesh
15,969
12
Thiruvananthapuram
Kerala
16,077
13
Mumbai North Central
Maharashtra
16,514
14
Jhunjhunu
Rajasthan
18,235
15
Sasaram
Bihar
19,157
16
Amravati
Maharashtra
19,731
17
Ludhiana
Punjab
20,942
18
Chandauli
Uttar Pradesh
21,565
19
Sonipat
Haryana
21,816
20
Dumka
Jharkhand
22,527
21
Muzaffarnagar
Uttar Pradesh
24,672
22
Davanagere
Karnataka
26,094
23
Medinipur
West Bengal
27,191
24
Gulbarga
Karnataka
27,205
25
Etah
Uttar Pradesh
28,052
26
Ahmednagar
Maharashtra
28,929
27
Mumbai North East
Maharashtra
29,861
28
Buxar
Bihar
30,091
29
Banaskantha
Gujarat
30,406
30
Bankura
West Bengal
32,778
31
Fatehpur
Uttar Pradesh
33,199
32
Kheri
Uttar Pradesh
34,329
TOTAL
6,09,639
Overall, the BJP experienced a 21% decrease in its seat share, while the Congress saw a significant 90% increase. It's noteworthy that the BJP contested on 441 seats this time, whereas the Congress fielded candidates in 328 seats.
Also Read: Political Turmoil In Maharashtra: 18-19 MLAs Poised To Change Parties, Will The NDA Government Fail?
Further analysis reveals that out of the 168 seats where the BJP fielded incumbent MPs, the party won 111, which accounts for 66% of those seats. In contrast, in the 132 seats where sitting MPs were replaced, the BJP won 95 seats, representing 72% of the total. This suggests that the party successfully managed to mitigate anti-incumbency in some constituencies by changing its candidates.
However, falling short of the majority mark in Parliament means that the BJP may now depend on the support of unpredictable allies such as Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu.
Also Read: 17 Non-NDA, Non-INDIA Candidates Who Won In Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Who Are They?