Will the BJP reach a deal with All Jharkhand Students Union Party, Janata Dal United, Lok Janshakti Party and Hindustan Awam Morcha for the Jharkhand Assembly Election 2024? Will it be able to forge an alliance that can take on ruling coalition led by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha? As the poll bugle has been sounded with the election process being launched, these questions have gained significance.

BJP Buoyed On Haryana Win

Buoyed on the unexpected success in Haryana in the recently concluded assembly polls, the saffron party has raised the bar for itself and is determined to grab as many seats as possible, without hampering the prospect of an amicable solution. However, it has climbed down from its earlier stand in a bid to strike a realistic deal that may unseat the JMM-led coalition.

How Many Seats Will BJP Leave For Allies?

Earlier, the saffron party planned to leave only 12 seats for other allies of the NDA, however, it has decided to make adjustments. Nitish Kumar–led JDU has been pressing for 4 seats, while the BJP wants to leave 2 seats for the party. There is disagreement on two seats, which the two parties are most likely to sort out soon.

How Many Seats Will LJP Get?

After expressing his displeasure with the government on the issue of caste census, LJP chief Chirag Paswan upped the ante last week by declaring that his party will go solo if the expectations are not fulfilled. Claiming that his party has strong presence in 14 seats in Jharkhand, the union minister declared his party was prepared to contest the Jharkhand Assembly Election 2024 alone “if seat negotiations with BJP do not have desirable results”.

HAM Makes Climb Down

Another NDA satrap Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM also indicated rebellion by announcing that his party would contest 10 seats. Later on, he also made a climb down and said, his party would contest for whatever seat is allocated. He added that the HAM would contest the elections for sure. He also said his party was in the process of identifying the seats it wished to contest.

BJP To Adjust AJSUP

The saffron party is likely to face the biggest challenge from the AJSUP, which has a sizeable presence in a vast area, mostly tribal-dominated constituencies. If media reports are to be believed, the party has demanded 16 seats while the saffron party is ready to leave 10-11 seats. The party contested 52 seats in 2019 assembly elections, though it won only 2 seats and garnered just 8.10% of votes.

Out of 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand, 28 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. The AJSUP has presence in many of the seats and the saffron party can use this outfit to counter its arch-rival the JMM.

Can BJP Increase Vote Share?

Though the saffron party won only 25 seats in the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly Elections, it managed to get 33.37% of the popular votes, the highest percentage of votes garnered by any political party in the state.

The BJP set the alarm bell ringing for the JMM by poaching on former Chief Minister Champai Soren. A day after the ‘Lion of Kolhan’ joined the BJP, accusing the JMM of insulting him, six MLAs met Hemant Soren, reiterating their allegiance to him and the party.

Though it sent a strong signal to Champai Soren and the BJP, his hold over the electorate of 14 assembly seats in the area cannot be ruled out.

Champai Soren To Checkmate JMM?

The BJP has nothing to lose by inducting Champai Soren or leaving a few more seats to other NDA allies as it could not win a single seat. While the JMM won 11 seats, the Congress won two seats and one seat went to an independent candidate. The AJSUP failed to win any seat in Kolhan in the last assembly election. The saffron party has pinned its hope on Champai Soren for countering the JMM and won a few seats.

As the AJSUP is also a party fighting for the cause of the tribals, it is natural that it would claim seats reserved for STs. This will be difficult for the party that wants to emerge as a champion of tribesmen. Leaving too many seats to the party may leave the BJP cadres in a quandary, as they have been waiting for the polls to make a killing.

Political observers believe the people of Kolhan are not happy with the treatment meted out to Champai Soren, but they may find it difficult to vote for the saffron party as the state is not yet polarized on the communal lines. Perhaps this is the reason, Champai has raised the issue of the alleged changes in the demography of the region and making the tribals a minority in their own areas.

Will the BJP be able to checkmate the JMM putting forward Champai Soren? The people of Jharkhand will soon give their verdict.