Jammu and Kashmir is grappling with a severe rainfall deficit as precipitation since November 1 has plunged 86% below normal levels, intensifying drought concerns and increasing the risk of forest fires across the region.
Between November 1 and December 9, J&K recorded just 6.1 mm of rainfall against the expected 43.1 mm, according to Kashmir Weather data released on Wednesday. This prolonged dry spell, ongoing since November 5, has led to critically low river flows, notably in the Jhelum River, and widespread dryness in vegetation and soil moisture.
In Kashmir Division, rainfall shortfalls range from 60% to over 90% in districts like Srinagar (83.3% deficit), Kulgam (90.5%), and Shopian (90.5%), with an average deficit of 82.1% across the division. Jammu Division reflects a similar trend, with districts such as Kathua and Kishtwar receiving no rainfall and others like Rajouri and Poonch recording deficits exceeding 90%. The division’s overall deficit stands at 82.6%.
Expert Faizan Arif from Kashmir Weather highlighted the impact of the extended dry spell, noting that the Jhelum River’s water level at Sangam has fallen below the zero-gauge mark to –0.59 ft, one of the lowest in recent years. The river’s flow may decline further as no major precipitation is forecast in the coming week.
The drying environment has heightened forest fire risks due to parched vegetation and low soil moisture combined with daytime heating, creating favorable conditions for fire outbreaks.
Addressing speculation on climatic causes, Arif stressed that current dry conditions cannot be directly linked to large-scale drivers like the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) or El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). He explained that the ongoing MJO phase and amplitude are weak, exerting minimal influence on winter rainfall in J&K. Similarly, the current La Niña phase does not guarantee a wet winter, as multiple atmospheric factors interplay to shape the region’s weather.
Temperatures remain low, with Srinagar recording a minimum of –3.9°C and higher elevation points such as Shopian and Zojila Pass dropping to –5.5°C and –18.0°C respectively.
Looking ahead, Arif noted an increase in Western Disturbance activity with intermittent weak systems expected over the next two weeks, offering potential snowfall in higher altitudes. He forecasted some relief in January, barring any extraordinary continuation of dry trends.
