Following heavy rainfall in August, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall for September as well. According to the forecast, total rainfall is expected to exceed 109% of the long-period average (LPA) for the month, which is typically 168mm.

Frequent Low-Pressure Systems to Bring Continuous Rain

“We anticipate low-pressure systems forming almost every week, resulting in continuous rainfall,” said Director General of Meteorology M Mohapatra. Extremely heavy rain is expected in the Himalayan foothills—covering Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and parts of Rajasthan—which may lead to landslides and floods, warranting caution.

Two Cyclonic Disturbances Expected Over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

The IMD expects at least two low-pressure systems, termed cyclonic disturbances, to form in the coming week—one over the Arabian Sea and another over the Bay of Bengal. Two more systems are likely during the second and third weeks, with all of them expected to move from Odisha toward western Uttar Pradesh. These systems will contribute to rainfall over North-west India, particularly Rajasthan.

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Rainfall Patterns: More in North-west, Less in South and North-east

The weather systems forming over the Bay of Bengal are likely to move northwest, bringing substantial rain to North-west India. In contrast, regions such as Rayalaseema, southern Karnataka, northern Bihar, north-east Uttar Pradesh, and much of North-east India could receive less rainfall.

Southwest Monsoon Continues Strong Performance

After a weak start in June, the southwest monsoon gained strength in July and August, exceeding normal rainfall predictions. July ended with 9% above-normal rainfall, while August saw a 15% excess, much higher than the IMD’s earlier forecast of ‘normal’ rainfall, defined as less than 106% of the LPA.

Temperature Likely to Remain Above Normal

Despite the wet conditions, temperatures are expected to remain higher than normal both during the day and at night.

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