In sharp contrast to the predictions made by pollsters and the general belief among the voters and many political leaders and commentators, the BJP is set to form a government in Haryana, for a consecutive third term. What went wrong that the predictions proved incorrect? Why did the Congress lose the Haryana Assembly Election 2024 despite the high-voltage rhetoric? Was it a consolidation of non-Jat votes or a revolt against what is called ‘Jatshahi’?

How Was Congress Apple-Cart Upset?

The saffron party seems to have upset the Congress apple cart by checkmating its strategy on which the party had built the entire plan. The Grand Old Party spun its strategy around taking advantage of the anger of the Jat community. Rahul Gandhi kept on flogging the farmers’ movement against the BJP-led union government. He also promised to accept the demand of giving a guarantee for the Minimum Support Price of select agricultural products.

‘Jat Chhori’ Did Not Work

Congress Party not only inducted wrestler Vinesh Phogat into its fold, it also fielded her from Julana to attract the Jat votes. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has already served as the Chief Minister of the state emerged as the CM face and undisputed Jat leader.

Non-Jat Consolidation

Political observers believe the Congress strategy boomeranged on it with massive consolidation of non-Jat voters. The saffron party experimented with this in 2014 when it chose a Punjabi Khatri Manohar Lal Khattar as its Chief Minister. As anti-incumbency set in, the BJP replaced him with Nayab Singh Saini, a Dalit leader. Not only the Dalits, but the people from the OBC and other non-Jats communities also opted to vote for the saffron party.

Though the Jat is a dominant community in Haryana, they constitute about 25% of the electorate while the OBC, the SC/ST and other people of marginalized segments made up 40% of all voters.

Bickering And Squabbles

Secondly, the bickering and squabbles in the Congress proved to be the main obstacle. As Bhupinder Singh Hooda was given the carte blanche in ticket distribution, Congress’ Dalit face Selja felt humiliated and disappointed. When the last list was declared on September 11, most of the Selja loyalists were left out, much to the chagrin of their leader. An angry Selja, she kept herself within the confines of her house and did not take part in the election campaign. Later, Rahul Gandhi interfered and mollified the Dalit leader, who came out in public to reiterate her commitment and support for the party and said that she like her father died as a Congress person.

However, it was too late. It appears she failed to woo the Dalit voters, who reposed their faith in the BJP instead.

Too Many Cooks Spoilt Broth?

Another important reason for the BJP’s victory is the election management, in which it defeated the Grand Old Party. While the Congress Party held about 70 rallies and meetings, the saffron party held more than 150 election rallies and meetings. While BJP icon Narendra Modi jumped on the band wagon earlier, Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul were late in joining the campaign. It also impacted the polls in a big way.

Small Parties: Spolier

Small parties like the Indian National Lok Dal, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Jannayak Janata Party and independents cut the vote share of the Congress instead of that of the ruling party. Though they did not win too many seats, they damaged the Congress, particularly in those seats where there was a neck-and-neck fight between the BJP and the Congress.

After receiving as many as 2,565 applications from ticket aspirants, the Congress party announced the names in as many eight lists. Those who did not find their names on the list rebelled and announced to contest the polls as independent candidates. It further damaged the party because they ate into the Congress votes whatever they could. The Grand Old Party also suffered when veteran leader Kiran Choudhry and her daughter Shruti quit it to join the saffron party. They accused Hood of creating problems with the party.

The party that won five seats in the Lok Sabha elections held a few months back was overconfident of its victory, riding on the wave of Jat anger and farmers’ dissatisfaction. But it failed to set its own house in order before the Assembly Election. Its own strategy proved counterproductive.