Counting of votes on the 90 seats for the Haryana Assembly and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections underway. Most Exit polls predicted a clean sweep for Congress in the Haryana Assembly elections. However, the early trends suggests otherwise. This is not first time in recent elections when the exit polls have failed to feel the pulse of the voters. However, in Jammu and Kashmir assembly election, the trends are in line with the expectations.
In various exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was projected to win between 19 to 32 seats in Haryana. The Indian National Congress (INC) was projected to secure between 44 to 62 seats. Others were expected to bag 2 to 9 seats.
However, early trends suggest that BJP is leading on 49 seats while Congress maintains its lead on 35. Others are ahead on 6 seats. The early trends suggests BJP coming to power in Haryana for third consecutive term.
In Jammu and Kashmir, it was predicted that NC-Congress alliance will win 35 to 50 seats. BJP and PDP was projected to secure between 20 to 32 seats and 4 to 12 seats, respectively. Others were expected to bag 4 to 16 seats.
The trends are in line with the expectations. NC-Congress alliance is leading on 51 seats, and BJP maintains lead on 27 seats. PDP is ahead on 2 seats.
Haryana Assembly Election is not the first example when exit polls had failed to read the pulse of the voters. Earlier in Lok Sabha Election 2024, they were proved to be wrong.
What Are Exit Polls?
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. The sample is considerably less to that of the actual number of the voters in an election.
Exit Polls Vs Results: Lok Sabha Elections 2024
Many exit polls had predicted a landslide win for the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. It was predicted that NDA will win more than 350 seats. INDI alliance was to get somewhere around 150 seats. However, the results came as a shocker.
The BJP-led NDA could only manage to win 293 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The Indi alliance performed way better than the expectations. ‘INDIA’ together managed to bag 234 Lok Sabha seats in the elections.
When Exit Polls Failed
Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2023- The BJP regained control in Chhattisgarh in the 2023 Assembly elections. However, many exit polls suggested an easy win for Congress in the state.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017- Exit polls predicted the hung assembly in the state in 2017. However, BJP came out as the single largest party and swept away the exit polls with overwhelming majority.
Delhi Assembly Elections 2015- Win for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was predicted but not the margin accurately. The AAP won 67 of total 70 assembly seats in Delhi.
Also Read: Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana Assembly Election 2024 Results Live
