After 10 years, voting for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections is all set to take place. In the first round on September 18, polls will be held for 24 seats. As the date approaches, excitement is growing, and major political leaders have started visiting the region quite frequently. While the air in Kashmir is scented with saffron, and the orchards are burdened with red apples, political parties are feeling the pressures of elections.

Even while leaders make tall promises in rallies, what is on the minds of the people of Jammu and Kashmir nobody knows. What will they think when they cast their vote? Nobody can say. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited Doda. It was his first visit ever after 45 years. He underlined his vision for New Kashmir.

Changes in Politics

The BJP has no idea which would be the decisive issues to mobilise votes in Jammu and Kashmir after abrogating Article 370. In its desperation to take on the BJP, the National Conference and Congress have allied, but whether this alliance can stop the BJP is anybody’s guess. The PDP under Mehbooba Mufti may be an affiliate of the INDIA alliance at the national level, but it is fighting the state assembly elections on its own.

Political Shifts

The BJP is unsure of the key issues that will drive voting in Jammu and Kashmir after the removal of Article 370. To challenge the BJP, the National Conference and Congress have formed an alliance, but it’s unclear whether they can stop the BJP. Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP, although part of the INDIA alliance nationally, is contesting the state elections on its own.

The release of Engineer Rashid from jail might change the political scene in Kashmir, and extremist independent candidates are also entering the race. For example, Sarjan Barkati, who became a prominent figure after the death of militant leader Burhan Wani in 2016, is contesting from Ganderbal and Beerwah.

BJP’s Game Plan

There are four main political forces in the Jammu and Kashmir elections. The first is the BJP, which ended Article 370 five years ago and is promising to build a new Kashmir. The second is the National Conference-Congress alliance. The third is Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP. Lastly, there are independent candidates, some of whom are supported by extremist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami.

Ram Madhav, who has a strong influence in Jammu and Kashmir, is leading BJP’s efforts in the region. He played a key role in forming the 2014 PDP-BJP government. The BJP’s goal is to win more than 50 seats in the 90-member assembly. While the BJP initially planned to contest all 90 seats, it is now fielding candidates for only 62 seats. For the remaining 28 seats in Kashmir, the BJP may support independents who have a good chance of winning.

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Engineer Rashid’s Impact

Engineer Rashid, who was jailed on terror-funding charges, is an important figure in this election. He has previously defeated major politicians like Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone for the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat. His party, Awami Ittihad, has made things difficult for other political leaders. Extremist candidates like Sarjan Barkati are also trying their luck in the elections, marking a shift from boycotts to contesting.

Challenges for Congress and National Conference

The National Conference and Congress alliance faces challenges from within, as some party members are running as independents after not receiving tickets. The PDP, once a major force, is also struggling to find strong candidates for many seats. While they have fielded candidates in 47 seats in Kashmir, their influence has been shrinking over the years.

Uncertainty Around PDP’s Future

Some experts predict that the PDP could face a decline similar to Mayawati’s BSP in Uttar Pradesh. However, politics can be unpredictable, and sometimes public support can bring back struggling parties. With no major party calling for an election boycott, and even extremists choosing to participate in the elections, the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir is shifting. It’s hard to predict who will align with whom if there is a hung assembly, but this election will be crucial for the region’s future.

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