Will the BJP be able to usurp the right-wing, ultra-nationalist, aggressive Hindutva plank of both factions of Shiv Sena and establish itself in Maharashtra as a party that talks about Hindus of all shades? Will the saffron party dig its heels deeper into its brand of Hindutva? Is it the long-time strategy of the party under which it has been working hard since 2022 when it succeeded in weaning away Eknath Shinde, splitting the party into two factions and convincing a majority of Shiv Sainiks to join it?

When ex-Chief Minister Devendra Fadvanis agreed to work as the Deputy of Eknath Shinde, who was offered the CM’s office, eyebrows were raised, and whispers began to echo in Maharashtra politics.

Will BJP Eat Into Shiv Sena’s Base?

Political observers at the time pointed out that the saffron party would eat into the Shiv Sena’s support base, wean away most of its cadres and grassroots workers, and establish itself.

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These speculations were proved to be true in the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024. While the BJP romped home with 132 seats, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena won 41 seats, Shiv Sena UBT was reduced to 20 seats in the 288-member house. NCP (Ajit Pawar) got 40 seats while the Sharad Pawar-led NCP won 10 seats.

The picture was different from the 2019 assembly elections, when the saffron party won 105 seats, the Shiv Sena 56, and the Nationalist Congress Party 54. However, if we add the seats of both factions of the Shiv Sena, it comes to 60. Similarly, both factions of the NCP won 50 seats together.

Congress’s Loss, BJP’s Gain

It can be argued that the numbers of seats of Shiv Sena and those of the NCP are not much different from those in the 2019 assembly elections. However, the Congress lost 27 seats and the BJP won 25 seats more than before.

The result may be perplexing, but it drops enough hints at the future politics that may take shape. Political observers believed earlier that the people might be angry at the saffron party and Eknath Shide-led Shiv Sena and punish them for the alleged treachery and betrayal of the legacy of Bala Saheb Thackeray.

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But the results proved this speculation wrong. The result shows that more people backed the Eknath Shinde-led party than the one led by Uddhav Thackeray.

BJP Makes Deep Inroads

The BJP succeeded in reaching out to the OBC which constitutes about 20% and the Dalits who make up about 10% of the state’s population. It made a considerable inroads into these segments of the society.

Most importantly, the saffron party pitched itself as the champion of Hindutva more aggressively to polarise the voters. The saffron party raised the slogan of “Batenge Toh Katenge” with the sole aim of consolidating the Hindus.

It went to the extent that Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the slogan of “Ek Hain To Safe Hain”, which was a more sophisticated and subtle way of what the party had been saying. The BJP did not mince words in attacking the Muslims in the name of uniting the Hindus.

Uddhava Thackeray Apologises To Muslims

Political observers were not shocked when Uddhav Thackeray not only softened his Hindutva but also reached out to the Muslims. He apologised to the Muslims for the role of Shiv Sainiks in the riots and the “kar-seva” at the Babri Masjid-Ram Temple, which was demolished on December 6, 1992.

It was in complete contradiction to his father Bala Saheb Thackeray who said that he would be proud had the Shiv Sainiks demolished the mosque.

‘Muslim Mavala’

The Muslims extended their hands to the Shiv Sena UBT. When Uddhava’s son Aditya Thackeray went from Sanganer to Worli, Ajiz Yakub Mommin and three other Muslim leaders traveled with him in the campaign.

Momin showed a locket around his neck with ‘Muslim Mavala’ inscribed on it and declared that he was a Muslim Mavala (trusted soldier of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj) of Aditya Thackeray.

Uddhav was gifted a copy of the Marathi translation of the Holy Quran when he visited a Muslim-dominated area.

Thackeray Softens ‘Hindutva‘

He said in the most unequivocal terms that he would emphasize employment, economic development, controlling price rise, education, and other things. He claimed that these were an integral part of his Hindutva as Hindus besides other communities would benefit from this.

However, these acts proved to be counter-productive. The Hindus did not vote for his party, his workers dejected him and the Muslims too did not vote for him in big numbers.

Shiv Sena has lost its base, while it has failed to gain substantial Muslim votes. Will it lose its base further?