Will India come under pressure and think of extraditing former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after the International Crimes Tribunal issued an arrest warrant against her Thursday? Hasina fled to India in August after a massive crowd invaded her official residence, vandalised it, and looted whatever they could get. 

Arrest Warrant Against Hasina, 45 Others

The tribunal has also issued arrest warrants against 45 others, including Hasina’s close aides and top Awami League leaders. They have been accused of crimes against humanity. According to Chief Prosecutor Muhammad Tajul Islam, the tribunal’s Chairman, Muhammad Golam Mortuza Majumdar, issued the orders after the prosecution filed two petitions seeking the arrest warrants.

After taking over the reins, the group of advisors to the interim government, led by Mohammad Yunus, filed as many as 60 complaints of enforced disappearances, murders, and mass killings. Cases against the former prime minister, members of her government, top leaders of the Awami League party, members of the 14-party alliance, journalists, and former top law enforcement officials have been accused of these crimes.

200 Cases Against Sheikh Hasina

If media reports are to be believed, the Islamist forces have captured power after the student movement. The interim government has filed about 200 cases against Sheikh Hasina, these are related to murders occurring during the mass student protests. More than 230 people were killed in the protests that engulfed Bangladesh and ultimately forced Sheikh Hasina to quit and leave the country in a hurry.

India Snubs Bangladesh

Political observers believe Dhaka will not worsen its ties with New Delhi by putting pressure on India and embarrass it by demanding Hasina’s extradition. Though the Nobel Laureate reached out to India as he requested for a meeting with Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the UNGA meeting, New Dehli spurned the offer. With this, India sent a strong signal to the neighbouring country.

What Options Does India Have?

Political observers also believe that India has many options and ways to ignore the extradition request. According to a clause in the India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty signed in 2013, the request may be turned down if the charges are politically motivated. The extradition treaty also has a long list of crimes that would not be deemed politically motivated. It includes murder, kidnapping, bomb explosion, and terrorism. As Sheikh Hasina has been accused of murder and genocide, it would be difficult for India not to deport her on this basis.

Problems For India Mounts

The political observers also believe that the problem for India may go up as the extradition treaty was amended in 2016 to add a clause, making the process easier. Clause 10 (3) states that furnishing the proof of crime will not be mandatory, an arrest warrant issued from a court of law will be sufficient for the extradition. It is clear that if even a district court issues an arrest warrant against Sheikh Hasina and Dhaka asks for her extradition, India will be in a very difficult position.

However, analysts believe that India can reject the extradition request under certain other provisions of the treaty. It can be denied if a case that requires extradition to the country to which the extradition request has been made is filed in that country. However, no case has been filed against the Bangladeshi leader, nor there is any possibility of doing so shortly.

India Can Reject Extradition Request

Political analysts believe New Delhi can deny the extradition request if the charges are made not in the interest of the judicial process.

India can also deny extradition if the charges are related to social crimes and do not come under criminal jurisprudence.

India has the advantage that it can reject the extradition request if it fears that the person extradited may be treated badly or denied justice. New Delhi has reasons to apprehend after former Education Minister Deepu Moni was assaulted in the court. Besides, Industrial Advisor Salman F Rehman was humiliated while being produced in the court. India can reject any extradition treaty on this ground.

Will Sheikh Hasina Return?

Dhaka is upset by the fact that Sheikh Hasina has sent many strong signals by sending messages to her followers back home. Yunus hit back by declaring that the former prime minister must shut her mouth if she wants to live in India till Bangladesh asks for her extradition.

Secondly, despite massive outrage against her, neither she nor her party Awami League can be ruled out politically for a long time. As the people get disenchanted with the government with the passage of time, people may look towards her. Though the military assured to hold elections within three months, that time frame will end soon and there is no indication of holding elections shortly. It is quite possible that the Awami League will turn the tide and Sheikh Hasina will return to her country.