The former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah who is otherwise firm and tight-lipped went emotional on September 5 while addressing the public in the Ganderbal constituency. Holding his cap in his hands, he urged people to vote for him and give the National Conference another chance. “My honour is in your hands”, said Omar appealing to the voters.
The NC leader was taken aback by his defeat in the Baramulla constituency in the Lok Sabha elections 2024 at the hands of imprisoned candidate Engineer Rashid. Now, when the people of Jammu and Kashmir are set to vote for the assembly polls after ten years, Abdullah seems to lack confidence.
Omar Abdullah already intimidated?
In his recent statement, Omar accused Delhi of hating him for allegedly fielding Sarjan Ahmad Wagay alias Sarjan Barkati against him from the Ganderbal constituency. As per the reports, Abdullah’s team collected nomination papers from multiple constituencies to confuse rivals but the senior leader finally decided to contend from two seats – Budgam and Ganderbal.
Budgam or Ganderbal?
While Budgam seems less disturbing for Omar where NC has always won the seat except in 1972 when INC grabbed the constituency, Ganderbal seems to be a completely different game. Also, after a span of ten years, predicting a win for a candidate considering his aura in the last 20 years is extremely difficult. This is neither 2004 nor 2009, the year 2024 has already seen the biggest leaders losing and the imprisoned unrecognized candidates winning.
Omar Vs Sarjan Barkati
It is evident by Omar Abdullah’s latest speech on the central govt that he sees Sarjan Ahmad Wagay alias Azaadi Chacha as a strong threat but the NC leader who did good homework to collect a dozen nomination applications seems to miss realizing the real difficulty in Ganderbal where not one or two but 24 candidates have erupted to put their fate to test in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections.
Sarjan Ahmad is a cleric and a strong contender for the Ganderbal seat despite being imprisoned since 2023 under the UAPA. He came to light for his provocative speeches after the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen leader Burhan Wani and is known to have motivated youth to join militants. Sarjan Ahmad alias Barkati has a huge influence on the people of the Valley and considering what happened in June, tables might turn, maybe again.
Bashir Ahmad Mir: PDP’s contender
But Sarjan Barkati is not the only one, the bigger threats are Bashir Ahmad Mir and Ishfaq Jabbar whom Omar would face in this constituency. Bashir Ahmad Mir is a PDP candidate who contested in the 2014 elections in the neighbouring constituency – Kangan. He lost to the NC candidate Mian Altaf Ahmad but the narrow margin of 2000 votes between both the candidates sent shockwaves across the Valley. Mian Altaf comes from a politically mighty family in Kangan and could save his seat by a close margin.
Mir this time is contesting from the Ganderbal seat as Kangan has been declared an ST reserved seat after delimitation. Also, because it is the neighbouring constituency, he has a good impact on Ganderbal as well. Masses of young men rallied for him this time.
Ishfaq Jabbar: the anti-NC rival
Nobody can be as difficult as the sitting MLA (the last winning MLA in this case) in the constituency and hence Ishfaq Jabbar seems no less a threat to Omar Abdullah. Ishfaq won the seat in 2014 on an NC ticket but was later expelled due to his anti-party activities. The strongest point about him is that he maintained his presence and hence the stronghold in Ganderbal during the last ten years. Assembly elections didn’t happen in 2019 but Ishfaq was always prepared for it.
Grabbing the seat in 2024 only because it belonged to the National Conference in 2014 seems daydream as the Valley has transformed geographically and politically and having a seat is not a piece of cake. Omar Abdullah has all the reasons to keep questioning if picking Ganderbal was the right choice.
