India’s imagination of a cyclone is still rooted in the old script: one large storm spinning toward the coast, dramatic visuals of uprooted trees, disrupted grids and then a quiet return to routine. Cyclone Senyar breaks that comfort zone. Formed near the Strait of Malacca, crossing Indonesia and not even expected to strike India directly, Senyar should have been a footnote in our cyclone season. Instead, it has emerged as a sharp climate signal.
Senyar matters not because it is powerful, but because it is a diagnostic test of the Bay of Bengal itself, an ocean that is warmer, more turbulent, and capable of spawning dangerous rainfall systems even when cyclones stay offshore.
Where Senyar is now and why it still matters
The IMD confirms that Senyar intensified into a cyclonic storm on 26 November shortly after emerging into the Strait of Malacca. Currently positioned near 5°N, 98°E, it packs wind speeds of 70 to 90 kmph. While it is expected to weaken gradually as it moves west, its atmospheric signature extends far beyond its immediate track.
At the same time, a well-marked low-pressure system over the southwest Bay near Sri Lanka is poised to bring heavy rainfall to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. Fishermen across multiple maritime zones have been warned of rough seas. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands remain under alerts for very heavy rain.
Senyar is not “India-bound”. Yet the combination of a warm Bay, intensifying rain bands, and a parallel low-pressure zone means the storm can still shape weather for millions across south and east India.
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Why a “moderate” cyclone can still hurt India. India today is more coastal than we acknowledge
- 40 percent of Indians live in coastal states.
- Around 137 million live in Bay of Bengal coastal districts.
- Nearly 75 percent of our coastline faces cyclone-linked hazards.
- More than 80 percent of Indians live in districts highly vulnerable to extreme hydro-meteorological events.
In such a landscape, even a 70 to 90 kmph cyclone becomes dangerous when:
- It interacts with another system and intensifies rainfall.
- It arrives when rivers and drainage networks are already full.
- It affects megacities with poor runoff systems, like Chennai, Kochi, or Visakhapatnam.
- Cyclone Montha in October forced the evacuation of 50,000 people in Andhra Pradesh and exposed up to 3.9 million residents to flooding risk. Senyar is moving through the same overheated ocean basin, under the same seasonal conditions.
- Moderate cyclones in a superheated environment behave nothing like moderate cyclones of the past.
The real story: A Bay of Bengal that refuses to cool. This is where Senyar turns into a warning
Cyclones typically need 27 to 28°C water to form. The Bay of Bengal now regularly reaches 30°C or more, both before and after monsoon. Recent observations during Cyclone Remal showed sea surface temperatures touching 32 to 33°C, nearly 4°C above normal.
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Scientific data shows:
⦁ Bay surface temperatures have risen by 0.2 to 0.3°C in 45 years.
⦁ They may rise another 2 to 3.5°C by century-end.
⦁ The Indian Ocean basin has warmed over 1.5°C since pre-industrial times and is today the fastest-warming ocean basin in the world.
This hotter “Warm Bay” has three consequences:
⦁ Cyclones form more easily; the threshold is crossed for longer periods each year.
⦁ They intensify rapidly; moderate storms can strengthen overnight if wind conditions allow.
⦁ They release far heavier rain; warm water loads the atmosphere with moisture.
Satellite-era records already show an increase in very severe cyclonic storms over the northern Indian Ocean. IMD marine bulletins warn of rough to very rough seas across wide stretches of the Bay and Arabian Sea between 25 and 30 November. The Bay has become a warm reservoir, and Senyar is simply tapping into it. Senyar is not an event - it is a climate signal.
Even if it weakens, Senyar’s indirect impact is clear:
⦁ Heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala.
⦁ Squally winds and disturbed seas across the southwest and central Bay, the Gulf of Mannar, Comorin region, Lakshadweep, and south Andhra coast.
⦁ Fishermen advised to stay away from multiple maritime zones.
Layer this with three uncomfortable truths:
⦁ The Bay of Bengal is India’s cyclone factory: It produces nearly five times as many cyclones as the Arabian Sea.
⦁ Exposure is exploding: At least 130 million people now live along the Bay’s coastlines, many in low-lying, poorly drained settlements.
⦁ Storm surge risk will soar: A study on an Amphan-like cyclone shows storm surge exposure in the Bay could triple by 2100 if emissions stay high.
This means a cyclone that never touches India can still:
⦁ Raise wave heights enough to damage ports and fishing fleets.
⦁ Trigger inland floods through distant rainfall bands.
⦁ Keep soils and reservoirs saturated, ensuring the next rain event becomes far more destructive.
Even its track is unusual. Cyclones hitting Indonesia in November are rare, and climate researchers already link such anomalies to shifting ocean heat patterns and altered atmospheric circulation. Senyar may not strike India, but it is writing the future of India’s climate vulnerability in real time.
The real shock is human, not meteorological. To understand Senyar’s significance, we must look at who stands in the path of this new Warm Bay.
Key facts:
⦁About 170 million Indians live in coastal zones already stressed by sea-level rise and erosion.
⦁ More than 80 percent of Indians live in districts highly vulnerable to extreme weather.
⦁ The east coast has endured a rapid succession of storms in recent years: Fani, Amphan, Gulab, Jawad, Dana, Montha all linked to warmer waters. Behind these numbers are lived realities:
⦁ Fisherfolk who may lose boats, nets, and weeks of income, not just a day of work.
⦁ Urban informal settlers in Chennai, Kochi, and Visakhapatnam whose homes flood even during “heavy spells”.
⦁ Farmers in Andhra and Odisha whose fields suffer saline intrusion after coastal flooding.
For them, the technical category of the cyclone matters less than:
⦁ Whether rain coincides with a high tide.
⦁ Whether local drainage works.
⦁ Whether the warning reaches them in time, in their language and through a medium they trust.
Senyar will test the gap between India’s excellent forecasting systems and the still-uneven protection offered to its most vulnerable citizens. If Senyar is treated as “just another storm,” the story ends when the winds die down. But if we frame it as a live demonstration of a permanently warming Bay of Bengal, it serves as a critical alert for 2035, 2050, and beyond.
We must move beyond tracking wind speeds to tracking heat. Senyar proves that in a warming world, a cyclone doesn't need to make landfall to leave a mark.