Lakshmana Venkat Kuchi
It is all happening in Karnataka right now, right here as the political potboiler of general elections kicks off in the right earnest. Yes, political fever is rising with electoral activities and pre-poll political dramas, action and allegations peaking.
Yes, there are attempts at poaching and counter-poaching, charges, and counter-charges between the two major contenders – the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress, stirring up a communal cauldron, an eruption of heated-up caste conflagrations over the reservation, and the third force in Janata Dal (Secular) upping its game to become the ‘spoiler’ of the kingmaker.
Congress appears to be off the blocks with its early candidate selections – the second list being out on Tuesday, and its campaign firmly in place and even effective as of now on the corruption plank. Besides, political activity on the ground, with few influential BJP leaders heading to Congress does indicate a possible tilt in its favour.
The BJP meanwhile has got its poll strategy firmly in place, roping in star power as well – Kannada film superstar Kicha, to name one — and fielding its biggest star campaigner, PM Narendra Modi in a bid to return to the key southern state, a progressive, prosperous and its entry point to South India. Karnataka goes to the polls on May 10 to elect a 224-member state assembly.
Congress’s creative campaign on PAYCM and 40 per cent Sarakara to refer to the BJP’s Basavara Bommai government has already hit home, and the party is gaining from the initial enthusiasm and goodwill generated by the Bharat Jodo Yatra of its leader Rahul Gandhi.
Slowly but surely, the big guns of national politics – Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and an assortment of national political leaders – are slated to crisscross the state, heating up the electoral and political atmosphere in a campaign that promises to be a no holds barred ‘full dress rehearsal’ for the 2024 Lok Sabha general elections.
In Karnataka, the Congress is no pushover, and if the recent poaching game is any indication wind seems to be blowing in its favour. Consider this: many times BJP MLAs switch to the Congress on the eve of elections, giving the Congress leaders a few more talking points as to the “many BJP people ready to jump the sinking ship.”
The poll eve decision of senior BJP MLA NY Gopalakrishna to quit the party and join the Congress is a jolt, coming closely after two BJP MLCs – Puttanna and Baburao Chinchansur – quit the BJP and joined the Congress in the presence of DK Shivakumar and S Siddharamaiah recently. JD(S) MLA S R Srinivas (Gubbi Srinivas alias Vasu) too joined the Congress last month.
Both the Congress and the BJP have refrained from naming a CM face, as both seem to be fearing internal rumblings on this score. The BJP has not officially endorsed the candidature of current chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, and Congress insists that the MLAs will elect the leader after the results are out. The national leaders of both parties have launched their respective campaigns for the elections.
While Rahul Gandhi kickstarted the party’s poll campaign in the state last month, with promises of more appearances, the BJP has fielded its biggest gun – Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has already visited the state seven times. And from now on and between the end of campaigning, the Prime Minister is scheduled to address between 25 to 30 rallies in Karnataka. Besides, the battery of its national leaders will be carpet bombing the state in a bid to ensure that Karnataka stays in its camp, as it is the key state that earned the BJP its entry point in south India.
This is why the BJP is trying to get its social arithmetic right and is working out its caste permutations and combinations in the selection of candidates. Both BJP and Congress are working out to build caste coalitions to help them win a clear-cut majority, unlike building broad rainbow coalitions across caste groups in order to bolster their chances of emerging with a clear majority in the coming elections.
In an election-eve social engineering move, the Karnataka government did away with a 4 per cent reservation for the minority community and distributed it equally to Lingayats and Vokkaliggas, the two dominant castes of Karnataka. The Lingayats have a strong presence in Northern Karnataka and the Vokkaligas are a key force in the Old Mysore region. Between them, the two castes account for more than half the MLAs elected.
The BJP has traditionally enjoyed the support of Lingayats. But this time around, BS Yeddyurappa, a prominent Lingayat leader is not a CM candidate and it remains to be seen if Lingayats continue to back the BJP as they did so far. The other dominant caste Vokkaliggas are expected to back JD (S) and also a section of them are divided between the Congress and the BJP. It remains to be seen if the new reservation policy will help Vokkaliggas to lean towards the BJP.
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So far Congress has benefitted from the Dalit and OBC votes and this time around too the way this block votes could determine the final outcome. The minority votes, with the Congress, could stay with it given the withdrawal of the 4 per cent reservation that was given by the Congress government. And whatever consolidation of the Hindu vote behind the BJP has happened has already happened and there could be little hope for incremental gain for the BJP on this score.
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