Will the BJP stage a coup and carry out Operation Lotus to snatch victory from the Aam Aadmi Party if it wins 25 to 31 seats, as predicted by Palodi and Mahadev Satta Bazaars? Will the Congress be able to make a comeback with its victory in a few selected seats or will it help the saffron party consolidate its position and resurgence if the grand old party wins these seats?
Political observers were shocked when Rajasthan-based Palodi Satta Bazaar indicated that the BJP may win as many as 29-31 seats and the AAP 39-41 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party is excited because Palodi Satta Bazaar correctly predicted the election results of Churu, Jodhpur, Jalore, Kota, Jaipur Rural, Barmer, Nagaur, and Ganga Nagar seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.
BJP In Stronger Position
However, political analysts point out that the BJP was on a stronger wicket in Delhi Elections 2020, compared to its performance in 2015.
Though the saffron party won only 8 seats in 2020, its vote percentage went up in 65 seats, including three percentage points in 52 seats while it recorded a gain of 5 percentage points in 45 seats.
Also Read: Delhi Assembly Elections 2025: What Have Satta Bazaars, C-Voter Predicted About Results?
The saffron party recorded a gain of 10 percentage points in as many as 18 seats.
The BJP must be bullish over this data and confident of improving it in Delhi Assembly Elections 2025?
However, its performance and number of seats it wins depends much on the performance of its arch-rival, the Congress.
Will Congress Eat Into AAP Vote Base?
Though it may look preposterous and ironic, but an analysis of the political dynamics of Delhi suggests the possibility of BJP flourishing over the ashes of the grand old party, and the worst sufferer may be the AAP.
After Arvind Kejriwal announced to go alone in the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025, the talks between the AAP and Congress collapsed in early December.
It was a shock for Rahul Gandhi, who wanted to strike a deal with the AAP to save the opposition coalition of INDIA and bolster its image.
As the AAP convenor announced to ditch Congress, with which the party fought the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 in Delhi, Rahul Gandhi and other party members begun to target him.
Congress Strategy To Benefit BJP?
The grand old pary has adopted the strategy of attacking the ruling party for its alleged failure to devlop the national capital and fulfilling its earlier poll promises.
The party also attacked the AAP for its alleged involvement in Delhi excise policy scam and branded it as Alcohol Affected Party.
The local leaders and workers of Congress were against joining hands wih the ruling party so that they could regain their own lost ground.
If Congress gets more votes, it will be possible only by eating into the vote base of the ruling party. Though the party lost all the seats it contested in 2020, it has hit back with increased enthusiasm and vigour after Rahul Ganhi targeted Arvind Kejriwal.
Mahadev Sata Bazaar has predicted that the Congress may win 2-3 seats in Delhi Election, while Phalodi Satta Bazaar is tight-lipped.
Will Congress Get More Votes?
However, political analysts observers the grand old party is most likely to get more votes even if it fails to convert that in number of seats.
Political analysts believe, the BJP may frame its poll strategy focusing on the 38 seats where its vote share was above 40% in 2020.
The saffron party trailed the AAP by less than five percentage points in 17 seats and won eight seats.
Besides, trying to win these seats, it can work on a number of factors like anti-incumbency, Hindutva, Caste politics like dominance of Gurjars, Delhi Excise poicy and many more.
What Will Be BJP Strategy?
Besides, the BJP may focus on local issues like crumbling infrastructure in Bawana, where it lost to the AAP. It can also raise the issue of the recently approved metro route Phase 4, which connects Narela, Rithala, Bawana, and Rohini.
Analysts believe Congress must work hard to win at least a few seats and increase its vote share to keep its head high as it targets the AAP and goes to the extent of Arvind Kejriwal.
If the grand old party fails to register an increase in vote share, it will be treated as one more failure of Rahul Gandhi and his position in the INDIA bloc will further weaken.
Will Delhi Election Impact INDIA Bloc?
The INDIA bloc leaders like Mamata Banerjee of the TMC and Farooque Abdullah of the National Conference have targeted Rahul Gandhi. He must save his face by winning a few seats in Delhi.
The grand old party has been trapped in a bizarre situation. If it improves its position, that may help the BJP and if it fails to do so, it will harm its position in the INDIA bloc. The BJP is in a win-win position.
