Will the middle class decide the fate of the political parties and their candidates on Saturday?
Will it tilt towards the BJP, which came out with innovative schemes in the most combative way to attack the ruling Aam Aadmi Party?
Will the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 become a tug of war between the middle class and the lower class living in slums?
Will Congress be able to regain at least some of its grounds lost to the rulig party?
These questions have become evident and important a few hours before the results of the Delhi Elections are declared.
Middle-Class Vs Lower Class
Analysts believe the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 has become a test of political strength between the middle class and the lower class, living in slums and jhuggi- jhoparis.
The AAP has established itself as a champion of the lower class by offering them free electricity up to 200 units, subsidised water, free medical care to some extent, good schools and free bus rides for women.
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It has focused its attention on the slum areas, unathorised jhuggi- jhoparis and the poor people have reposed faith in the Arvind Kejriwal-led party by voting for its candidates in all who three elections it has participated in Delhi since its inception- 2013, 2015 and 2020.
Politics Of Freebies
After being accused of indulging in the politics of freebies, the AAP came out with full vigour and claimed that such a kind of politics is necessary for the poor of the national capital.
It held “Revdi Per Charcha” meetings in almost all constituencies with a special focus on slums. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party justified its politics by claiming that the poor people get a benefit of at least Rs 5,000 to Rs 6,000 every month, which helps them fight inflation.
After criticising the freebie politics initially, the BJP joined the bandwagon. It came out with much bigger largesse to blunt the populist schemes of the ruling party.
BJP Strategy To Woo Middle Class
The saffron party announced a monetary assistance of Rs 2,500 to every eligible Delhi woman, assistance of Rs 21,000 to all pregnant women of Delhi, pension schemes for elderly people and many other things.
Congress also announced schemes to match the largesse announced by the two parties.
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However, the anti-incumbency sentiments began to resonate soon and complaints of broken roads, unhealthy conditions, and polluted Yamuna began to get priority.
Soon the discontent of the middle class became an important political issue and the BJP rushed to exploit it.
As the middle class constitutes about 45% of Delhi electorates, all eyes are set on it. Analysts wonder if the BJP win this class by holding meetings in almost all constituencies to reach out to this segment of society.
Arvind Kejriwal Bats For Middle Class
Sensing the lurking danger, Arvind Kejriwal came out with hammers and tongs. He put seven demands to the Finance Minister to address the issues of the middle class before the Union Budget 2025.
The former Chief Minister of the state asked the finance minister to increase the budget allocation for education from 2% to 10%, increase the health budget to 10%, remove the health insurance tax, increase the income tax exemption limit from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 10 lakh and abolish GST on essential items.
In a bid to attract the elderly people of the middle class, he asked Nirmala Sitharaman to make a comprehensive retirement policy and free treatment for senior citizens.
So, who will decide the fate of Delhi politicians- the middle class or the poor people living in slums?
The second important question is: will Congress get its grounds lost to the AAP, even though it may not win too many seats?
Will Congress Regain Lost Grounds?
An analysis of the poll data shows that the vote share of the BJP has remained almost intact and fluctuated between 32% and 38% despite repeated defeat in Delhi Elections.
Though the saffron party got only three seats in the 2015 assembly elections, it polled 32.2% of votes, while the Congress got only 9.7% of votes and failed to win a single seat. The AAP won 67 seats and got 54.3% of the votes.
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The Congress polled 40.31% of votes and won 43 seats in the 2008 Delhi Elections while the BJP won 23 seats and received 36.34% of votes.
BJP Vote Share Remains Intact
While the vote share of the saffron party in 2020 was 38.51% of votes, the AAP polled 53.57%. In Delhi Elections 2020, the vote share of the grand old party plummeted to 4.3%.
Political analysts point out that while the vote share of the Congress fell from 40.31% in 2008 to 4.3% in 2020, that of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party soared to 53.57% in 2020.
Analysts believe, after Arvind Kejriwal spurned Congress and declared to go alone, Rahul Gandhi hit the campaign trail, to win back the lost voters.
The poll experts believe Congress is not confident of being able to form the government, but it is confident of making deep inroads and regaining at least a part of its lost support base.
