Retail inflation in the month of March fell to 3.34% from 3.61% in February, according to the official data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. This is the lowest since August 2019, led by lower vegetable prices.
The consumer price index or CPI core inflation stood at 4% in March against 4.1% in February last month, the data shows. The rural CPI inflation for March stood at 3.25% against 3.29% in its previous month. The March CPI urban inflation was at 3.43% against 3.32% in February, the data says.
Moreover, in March, the food CPI inflation declined to 2.69% against 3.75% in February, as per the data. India’s retail inflation significantly improved in February 2025 and further improvement was seen in March as well. Furthermore, a sharp decline of 106 basis points is observed in food inflation in March in comparison to February 2025. The food inflation in March 2025 is the lowest after November 2021.
The retail inflation print fell below 4% in February for the first time in 6 months, mainly due to a decline in vegetable prices. On April 9, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its monetary policy announcement, said that inflation is expected to remain under control in the financial year 2025-26.
The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the year at 4%, assuming a normal monsoon. According to the RBI, the food inflation outlook has turned positive. Vegetable prices have seen a broad and significant seasonal decline.
For FY26, inflation is expected to be 3.6% in the first quarter, 3.9% in the second quarter, 3.8% in the third quarter, and 4.4% in the fourth quarter. The central bank said risks to inflation are evenly balanced.
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