Renowned investor Ray Dalio believes the world has entered a crucial turning point. In this era, technology, self-reliance, and domestic strength matter more than rules or agreements. He shared this in a conversation with Nikhil Kamath. Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates. He said that despite its challenges, India is in a unique position to become one of the fastest-growing major economies over the next decade. Dalio’s optimism about India comes against the backdrop of a changing global order, which he describes as being defined by power struggles rather than multilateral cooperation, particularly between the US and China.
According to Dalio, the global system established after 1945, based on institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the World Bank, has effectively ended. It has been replaced by a system where power, rather than rules, determines outcomes. He said, “We no longer have that kind of world order.”
Conflict Extends Beyond the Battlefield
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio highlighted growing geopolitical tensions and declining trust among major powers. He explained that countries are preparing for clashes not only on battlefields but also in trade, capital flows, technology, and influence. Dalio said, “We are in the classic wars that happen before military wars. We are in trade wars. We are in a technology war. We are in geopolitical influence wars.” While he doesn’t foresee immediate large-scale military conflict, Dalio warned that risks are higher now compared to past decades, especially if domestic weaknesses meet external pressures.
Technology: The Key Battleground
Dalio identifies technology as the most important factor shaping global leadership. From semiconductors to artificial intelligence (AI), dominance in advanced technology will determine economic power, military strength, and geopolitical influence. While the US currently leads in cutting-edge chip innovation, China has shown superior ability to implement technology at scale, integrating AI and digital systems into governance, daily life, and production. According to Dalio, this competition is forcing countries to reassess their vulnerabilities.
Self-Reliance and Reducing Dependencies
Dalio noted that nations are moving toward greater self-reliance, actively identifying dependencies in capital, supply chains, or technology that rivals could use as leverage. Countries are taking steps to reduce these risks and strengthen their internal resilience.
India in a Strong Position
Against this unstable global backdrop, Dalio believes India is on a “strong growth curve.” He said India is among the best-positioned major economies for the next decade, citing low debt, a large talent pool, and rapid infrastructure development. Unlike heavily indebted advanced economies, India still has room to expand credit, build physical and digital infrastructure, and formalize economic activity—factors that typically drive high growth.
Dalio explained, “When you are building infrastructure and creating the ability to transact and lend, it generates a growth curve.” He compared India’s current stage to China nearly three decades ago, during its early transformation phase, but noted India’s pace is strongly in its favor.
Advice for the next generation of investors
For Dalio, the decisive factor in the new global order is domestic strength, not alliance management. He emphasized that a country’s health, fiscal discipline, social cohesion, technological competitiveness, and ability to manage internal political cycles determine its power. These are challenges that all major nations, including India, must navigate carefully.
Despite global competition shifting from open globalization to cautious rivalry, Dalio sees India’s fundamentals as giving it a rare opportunity for large-scale growth. He concluded, “India is likely to achieve the strongest growth and reforms over the next 10 years.”
On advice for young investors and entrepreneurs, Dalio told Nikhil Kamath on “WTF Is Finance”: start early, explore what you love, and learn by doing. He said, “Play the game. Whatever way you play the money game, you’ll start learning the fundamentals.”
