After crisscrossing Uttar Pradesh to woo voters in a very charged and acrimonious campaign to capture the power in India’s most politically sensitive state, the political leader as well as the nation would now wait with bated breath to know the verdict of people of the state. Who would become the next Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh?
Will Mayawati remain at the helm of affairs there? It is said for Uttar Pradesh that there are only two ways to make predication about UP elections. If you know as to where the Muslims and Brahmins have voted, then you can make fairly correct predication.
In the 2007 assembly elections, both have voted for Mayawati in a big way. That pave the way for resounding success of BSP. This time Muslim votes have divided among Samajwadi Party, Congress and Peace Party. Brahmins are with SP, BJP and Congress.
Admittedly, BSP would be the biggest looser of 2012 polls. While all the other parties would improve from their 2007 tally, BSP would be loosing. However, dalits are still backing BSP solidly. Jatavs,the largest dalit caste, is with Mayawati without any doubt.
This time BSP was banking on Muslim votes to retain power. In the last assembly elections in 2007, they stressed on an upper caste-Dalit combination, but this time their stress is on Dalit-Muslim-OBC (Other Backward Caste).
BSP leader were making every effort to please the Muslim community. The party had given Muslims the lion’s share. They have nominated 85 candidates from the Muslim community as compared to the 61 in the last 2007 elections.
Samajwadi Party seems to be emerging as the single largest party. At the end of the long and punishing campaign,the question is being asked: Which party would emerge as number two party in the state ? BSP can be close second.
Political observers feel that the Muslim votes would be divided between Samajwadi Party and the Peace Party. That will help the cause of BSP. The Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav was cautious this time and not taking any chance with the Muslim voters.
The party has decided to target the Muslim voters, promising maximum reservation for them, if voted to power. Under the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav,SP leaders have worked really hard to woo the Muslims and also vowed to stand with the community to fight against terror.
Yadav has also brought Shahi Imam of Delhi’s Jama Masjid Syed Ahmed Bukhari in his team in an effort to woo Muslims. Arguably, Congress is also going to add more seats compare to their last time’s tall of only 22. Rahul Gandhi has really worked hard in the state. It would be interesting to see how many seats and vote percentage of party increase this time in UP.
Given the importance of Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh, Congress has made every possible effort to woo Muslim voters by promising reservations for backward minorities. The party seems to be ready to give 9 percent reservations to backward Muslims. And as far as the BJP is concerned,reports suggest that the party may perform well in Jatland. Let’s see who would celebrate Holi more this time in Uttar Pradesh ?